China’s Pork Prices Rebound: Has the Pig Cycle Turned?
After more than 40 months of relentless decline, China’s pork prices are showing signs of life. As of June 18, the live hog spot price reached 9.45 yuan per kilogram, marking a 0.43% increase over the past week, according to Xinhua News. The modest uptick has reignited debate among analysts, policymakers, and farmers alike: has the long-awaited turning point in China’s infamous “pig cycle” finally arrived?
Context: The Longest Downturn in History
The current downturn began in 2022 and has persisted for over 40 months, approaching the length of a typical full pig cycle. Prices have lingered near the bottom for more than 20 months, breaking historical records. At its lowest point, the national average hog price fell below 10 yuan per kilogram, with some regions dropping to as low as 7.9 yuan per kilogram in Hainan province, as reported by National Business Daily.
The industry has been bleeding. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, China’s two largest pig farming companies — Muyuan Foods and Wenshi Group — reported combined net losses exceeding 2.2 billion yuan, according to QQ News. Smaller operators have fared even worse, with many facing losses of 300 to 500 yuan per head.
What’s Driving the Recent Rebound?
The recent price increase is primarily attributed to pre-Dragon Boat Festival centralized procurement by slaughterhouses, which has temporarily boosted market demand. However, analysts caution against reading too much into the holiday-driven uptick.
“The core reason for the price increase before the Dragon Boat Festival is the centralized procurement by slaughterhouses for holiday preparations, which has temporarily boosted market demand,” the Xinhua article noted, citing industry experts.
Beyond the seasonal factor, there are more structural forces at work. Under policy guidance, breeding sow inventory has been steadily declining since the fourth quarter of 2025. As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the national breeding sow inventory stood at approximately 39.04 million head — multiple consecutive months of month-on-month decline, according to the Ministry of Agriculture’s revised Pig Capacity Comprehensive Regulation Plan.
Has the ‘Pig Cycle’ Changed Forever?
The traditional pig cycle follows a predictable pattern: high prices lead farmers to increase breeding, which causes oversupply and falling prices, which then leads to reduced breeding and eventually rising prices again. A complete cycle typically lasts about four years.
But this cycle is different. The 2018-2021 African Swine Fever outbreak triggered a massive consolidation of China’s pig farming industry. Large-scale farming operations now dominate, replacing millions of small and medium farmers. The number of smallholders fell from 66.29 million in 2010 to 16.72 million in 2025 — a 74% decline, as documented by Dazhong Daily.
This structural shift has fundamentally altered the cycle’s dynamics. Large enterprises have stronger risk tolerance, reducing panic culling during downturns. Industry efficiency has also improved dramatically: the national PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) has risen from 16 to 23, with top firms reaching 30.
“Under the influence of these factors, the characteristics of the pig cycle are not as obvious as before, with smaller fluctuations and the cycle changes being extended to a certain extent,” the Xinhua article explained.
Expert Outlook: Cautious Optimism
Most experts agree that the cycle is approaching a bottom, but a full recovery will be gradual rather than sharp.
Wang Zuli, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told National Business Daily in April: “The turning point may be approaching around the second quarter, moving toward the latter part of Q2. Prices in the second half should be higher than the first half, but because the overall capacity reduction is relatively limited, even if prices rise, they won’t rise too much.”
Xia Chenfeng, an agricultural data analyst, concurred: “2026 hog market prices will most likely show a low first half, high second half trend, which is also the current industry consensus.”
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst at the China Pig Warning Network, emphasized that the key variable remains breeding sow capacity reduction: “Instead of staring at government procurement, it’s better to stare at the situation of breeding sow capacity reduction. That’s the core.”
The Road Ahead
The data suggests the industry is making progress but has not yet crossed the finish line. Breeding sow inventory at 39.04 million head remains about 1.5 million head above the government’s target of 37.5 million head. The 10-month lag between capacity reduction and its effect on supply means the full impact of recent cuts will materialize around August 2026.
Looking ahead, the industry consensus points to a “low first half, higher second half” trajectory. With continued capacity reduction, improved industry management, and seasonal demand boosts from upcoming holidays, pork prices are expected to recover gradually.
Perhaps the most significant long-term takeaway is that China’s pork market may never see the dramatic boom-and-bust cycles of the past again. As the Xinhua article concluded: “In the future, the stability of hog supply will significantly improve, and it may be difficult to see sharp rises and falls again. This is good news for both consumers and farmers.”
For now, the pig cycle appears to be turning — but the turn will be slow, steady, and carefully managed, reflecting an industry that has fundamentally matured.