Walz Approval Rating Craters to 39%, Trails Trump in Minnesota

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s approval rating has plummeted to 39%, the lowest level of his six-year tenure, as a massive fraud scandal involving billions of dollars in stolen public funds continues to erode voter confidence. According to a new Mason-Dixon poll conducted for KARE 11, the Minnesota Star Tribune, and the University of Minnesota’s Hubbard School of Journalism, 53% of likely voters now disapprove of the governor’s performance, with 8% undecided.

Strikingly, President Donald Trump’s approval rating in the same polling unit registered at 41% in Minnesota, meaning Walz now trails the Republican president in his own deep-blue home state — a development that political analysts say underscores the severity of the political damage inflicted by the fraud crisis.

The Fraud Scandal at the Center of the Collapse

The poll, which surveyed 800 registered Minnesota voters likely to participate in the November general election (margin of error ±3.5 percentage points), was conducted from June 8–10 amid the fallout from one of the largest fraud scandals in U.S. history. A comprehensive 84-page final report released in May by the Minnesota House Fraud Prevention Committee concluded that fraud under Walz’s watch is “massive and unprecedented,” estimating $300 million in federal meal program fraud and up to $9 billion in Medicaid fraud across 14 programs.

The report, as covered by Fox News, alleged that Walz created a “culture of tolerance” that enabled fraud, prioritizing “compassion over compliance” and ignoring whistleblower warnings for years. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has accused Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison of ignoring warnings to avoid accusations of racism against Minnesota’s Somali community.

A majority of poll respondents said they were “very concerned” about fraud in state social services programs, with another 27% “somewhat concerned.” When asked which party they trust more to fix the issue, 45% chose Republicans compared to 38% who chose Democrats, while 14% said they trust neither party.

Eroding Democratic Support

Walz’s declining popularity is particularly notable among his own party. Last year, 91% of Harris voters in Minnesota approved of the governor; now only 69% say they do. Overall, just 73% of Democrats approve of Walz’s performance, while only 1% of Republicans and 32% of Independents do.

“The idea that he is now below 40% in popularity in his own state shows that the volatility and the mood of the electorate is not invested in long-term relationships right now,” political analyst Blois Olson told KVRR. “They want people they can trust, that are consistent and that are there.”

Republican lawmakers were quick to seize on the numbers. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) told Fox News Digital: “President Trump is more popular than Tim Walz in his home state because Minnesotans are sick and tired of Walz siding with illegal aliens and Somali fraudsters over his hardworking, taxpaying constituents.”

State Sen. Mark Koran (R-MN) added: “He let his fraud crisis blow up and didn’t do anything to fix it while he was busy shoving all this radical stuff into state government. … His legacy is going to be the fraud crisis and desecrating the state flag.”

A Political Trajectory Reversed

Walz was once seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. After winning a historic Democratic sweep of state government in 2022, he was selected as Kamala Harris’s running mate in the 2024 presidential election. But the ticket’s loss, combined with mounting scrutiny of the fraud scandal, derailed his political trajectory.

In January 2026, Walz abandoned his re-election campaign amid doubts from fellow Democrats about his viability for a third term. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is now the DFL-endorsed candidate for governor and has carefully distanced herself from Walz, saying she would have acted more quickly to stop fraud.

The new Minnesota state flag — approved by a Democratic-controlled commission in 2023 and supported by Walz — has also become a secondary political liability. The poll found that 50% of voters disapprove of the flag, which critics say resembles Somalia’s national flag.

Implications for the Midterms

Walz’s cratering approval could have significant consequences for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. With fraud as a top concern for voters and Republicans holding a 7-point trust advantage on the issue, the governor’s race between Klobuchar and the eventual Republican nominee is shaping up to be a defining contest.

As Olson noted, voters fed up with both parties could be a decisive wildcard. With 14% trusting neither party on fraud and independents showing low trust in Democrats (only 21%), there is a clear opening for Republican candidates.

Walz is scheduled to leave office in January 2027. The Minnesota Primary is set for August 11, with the general election in November. Whether the fraud scandal will have lasting electoral consequences beyond Walz’s tenure remains an open question — but for now, the governor’s political standing in his home state has never been lower.”