Belgium Unemployment Reform: Only 1 in 10 Excluded Beneficiaries Found Work

A new analysis by Belgium’s National Employment Office (ONEM/RVA) reveals that only approximately one in ten people who lost their unemployment benefits under the government’s sweeping reform have actually found work. The data, first reported by L’Echo on 20 June 2026 and widely covered by Belgian media, shows significant regional disparities and raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the De Wever I government’s flagship social policy reform.

Context: The Unemployment Reform

The reform, adopted in July 2025, is one of the cornerstone policies of the Arizona coalition government led by Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA). Its stated goal is to “make work pay” and increase labour market participation by limiting the duration of unemployment benefits. As VRT NWS reported in March 2025, the government anticipated the reform would affect more than 100,000 people and generate savings of €900 million in its first year.

Under the new rules, unemployment benefits are time-limited to a maximum of two years for most recipients. The reform phases out benefits progressively: those unemployed for more than 20 years lost their benefits in January 2026, those unemployed for more than 8 years followed in March, and those with less than 8 years of unemployment saw their benefits end in April 2026.

The Data: What the ONEM Analysis Shows

According to the ONEM analysis published on Saturday, approximately 100,000 people have lost their unemployment benefits under the reform, with further waves expected in late 2026 and 2027.

The first wave in January 2026 affected 8,972 people who had been unemployed for more than 20 years. Of these, only 5.8% found work as employees or self-employed. The second wave in March 2026 was far larger, affecting 36,584 people unemployed for more than eight years. Of this group, 10.2% — or 3,742 people — secured employment, double the rate of the January cohort.

Across both cohorts, approximately 4,262 people out of 45,556 who lost benefits have found work, representing a combined reintegration rate of roughly 9.4%.

As RTBF reported, the lowest reintegration rate was recorded in Brussels at 8.5%, while Wallonia reached 10.7% and Flanders achieved the highest rate at 11.8%.

The Government’s “Three-Thirds Hypothesis”

The government had anticipated that roughly one-third of excluded beneficiaries would find work, one-third would turn to social assistance (CPAS/OCMW), and one-third would leave the workforce or find other solutions. The current figures — approximately 10% finding work — fall significantly short of this one-third target.

However, ONEM has stated that the figures are moving in the direction of the government’s hypothesis, noting that the improvement from 5.8% to 10.2% between the first and second waves suggests a positive trend. As The Brussels Times reported, ONEM expects this trend to be confirmed by greater job placements for subsequent exclusion waves.

Social Consequences: The Shift to CPAS

A key consequence of the reform has been the shift of financial burden from federal unemployment insurance to local social assistance. Multiple reports indicate that a significant portion of excluded beneficiaries are turning to CPAS (Public Social Welfare Centres) for support.

According to La Libre, over 55% of excluded beneficiaries in Wallonia have turned to CPAS. In Brussels, the figure reached 64% in the City of Brussels, according to DH Les Sports+. This shift is creating significant financial pressure on local governments, which fund approximately 70% of income integration costs.

Criticism and Concerns

The reform has drawn criticism from multiple quarters. The Federal Institute for Human Rights (FIRM) warned in a June 2026 report that the reforms are leading to an “unjustified erosion of social rights” for hundreds of thousands of people. As The Brussels Times reported, FIRM stressed that the government may not lower the level of protection afforded to social rights without sufficient justification.

Belgium’s Court of Audit also questioned the expected budget savings from the reform in February 2026, suggesting the financial benefits may not materialise as projected. Opposition parties — including PS, PTB, and Ecolo-Groen — argue the reform is punitive and fails to address structural unemployment issues.

Analysis and Outlook

The ONEM data presents a mixed picture. While the overall reintegration rate of roughly 10% is significantly below the government’s one-third target, the improving trend between cohorts offers some grounds for optimism. The significant regional disparities — with Flanders outperforming Brussels by more than three percentage points — reflect structural differences in labour markets that the reform alone cannot address.

The shift of beneficiaries from federal unemployment insurance to local CPAS systems raises important questions about the reform’s fiscal sustainability. If the trend continues, municipalities — particularly in Wallonia and Brussels — may face mounting financial pressure.

As subsequent waves of exclusions take effect in late 2026 and 2027, the key question remains: will the improving trend continue, or will the remaining long-term unemployed prove even harder to place in the labour market? The answer will determine whether Belgium’s ambitious unemployment reform is ultimately judged a success or a failure.