China Tests First ICBM in 44 Years in Strategic Show of Force

On September 25, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) conducted a full-trajectory test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean — the first such public test in 44 years. The missile, identified by analysts as the DF-31AG, was launched from Hainan Island at 08:44 Beijing time and traveled approximately 11,000 to 12,000 kilometers before landing in designated waters near the South Pacific, according to China’s Ministry of National Defense.

A Historic Return to the Pacific

China’s last full-range ICBM test into international waters was the DF-5 launch on May 18, 1980 — a mission known as “580” that saw a liquid-fueled missile travel 8,000 kilometers from Jiuquan into the South Pacific. That test was announced as a “carrier rocket” launch, reflecting the low-profile diplomacy of the Deng Xiaoping era. The 2024 test marked a stark contrast: Beijing explicitly called it an “ICBM with a dummy warhead,” signaling a new era of strategic transparency under President Xi Jinping.

As Hui Zhang, a physicist and senior research associate at Harvard’s Belfer Center, noted in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, this shift in language “conveys Xi’s more assertive diplomacy” and reflects China’s growing confidence vis-à-vis the United States.

The Missile: DF-31AG

Analysts widely agree the missile tested was the DF-31AG, an improved variant of the DF-31A. Key characteristics include solid-fuel propulsion for faster launch preparation, road-mobile deployment on an upgraded transporter erector launcher (TEL) with improved off-road capabilities, and a range of approximately 11,200 kilometers — sufficient to reach most of the continental United States.

According to the Eurasia Times, the DF-31AG made its public debut during a 2017 military parade and has been in service since 2018. It is equipped with a wheeled TEL designed to traverse rough, unpaved terrain, enabling the PLA to conceal and distribute its missile assets across rugged landscapes.

Technical Insights from Launch Photos

China’s military media wing, China Junhao, released high-definition photographs of the launch the following day — a rare step for a military that had not publicly released images of a new ICBM launch in decades. Military commentator Du Wenlong, writing in Sina News, identified three key takeaways from the images:

1. Field conditions: The launch from wasteland on Hainan Island demonstrated all-terrain, all-weather capability
2. Mobile launch: The vehicle-mounted TEL confirmed road-mobile capability, not reliance on fixed silos
3. Cold launch: A two-tone smoke plume indicated gas-ejection cold launch technology, which protects the launch vehicle and personnel by ejecting the missile from its canister before motor ignition

Strategic Significance: Three Signals

Professor Wang Weizheng of Adelphi University, speaking to Radio Free Asia, argued the test conveyed three distinct signals:

• Domestic: The launch signaled that the Rocket Force’s anti-corruption purge was complete and that Xi Jinping had reasserted control over the strategic missile force
• Military: It demonstrated mature long-range missile technology and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability
• Diplomatic: It warned the United States — particularly during the 2024 US election transition — that China’s strategic weapons capability had matured

Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFA that the test was partly a response to international skepticism about PLARF’s operational readiness following high-profile corruption scandals, equipment quality concerns, and major leadership reshuffling within the force.

International Reactions

The United States confirmed receiving advance notification of the launch. A Pentagon spokesperson called it “a step in the right direction” that “prevented any misperception or miscalculation,” as reported by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Japan, however, was not notified in advance. Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangzheng expressed concern about the lack of transparency, noting that while China had informed the US, Australia, and New Zealand, Tokyo was left out — a decision analysts attributed to both the flight path’s distance from Japanese territory and ongoing bilateral tensions.

Australia and New Zealand, as proximate nations to the impact zone, were believed to have been notified. Taiwan’s defense ministry said it monitored the launch and deployed appropriate response measures.

Nuclear Modernization in Context

China’s nuclear arsenal has expanded significantly under Xi Jinping. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, China increased its total warhead count from approximately 260 in 2016 to about 500 in 2024, with the number of ICBMs capable of reaching the continental United States growing from roughly 65 to 240 over the same period. The US Defense Department has projected that China could possess over 1,000 warheads by 2030.

As noted by The Strategist, the test was not merely an equipment demonstration by technical departments but a combat preparedness exercise by the PLARF itself — signaling that the force remains operational and credible despite recent internal disruptions.

What to Watch For

The September 2024 test may mark the beginning of a new pattern. Analysts suggest China could follow the United States in conducting regular annual public ICBM tests. The test also raises questions about whether China’s long-standing no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy remains unchanged, as the rapid expansion of its arsenal prompts debate over whether Beijing is shifting from “minimum deterrence” toward a more ambitious nuclear posture.

Key questions remain unanswered: Has China officially confirmed the missile model? Will Beijing notify Japan in future tests? And most critically, will the United States and China engage in strategic stability talks to prevent a new nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific?

For now, one thing is clear: after 44 years of silence, China has demonstrated that its strategic deterrent is operational, mobile, and ready — a message that has been received loud and clear from Washington to Tokyo.