Belgian Consumer Confidence at Highest Level in 20 Years

Belgian consumer confidence has climbed to its highest level in two decades, according to the latest monthly survey from the National Bank of Belgium. The consumer confidence index rose to -7 in June 2026, up from -10 in May, marking the first improvement since January and a milestone not seen in 20 years.

A Turning Point for Household Sentiment

The rebound, published on June 22, breaks a five-month stretch of stagnation or decline. While the index remains in negative territory—meaning pessimists still outnumber optimists—the improvement signals a meaningful shift in how Belgian households view their economic prospects.

According to RTBF, which reported on the National Bank’s communiqué, consumers have now viewed the future economic situation with more optimism for three consecutive months. The National Bank noted that households also anticipate a slight improvement in employment, though expectations in this area remain close to last month’s low level.

On a personal level, the outlook is similarly positive. The NBB reported that consumers expect their financial situation to continue improving over the next twelve months and, unlike in previous months, plan to save more—a reversal of a recent trend that had seen savings intentions decline.

Context: A Long Road Back

The improvement comes against a backdrop of significant economic headwinds. Belgium has faced persistently high inflation, with food prices reaching levels unseen since 1983 in early 2025. The National Bank itself recorded a loss of €1.52 billion in 2025, its fourth consecutive year of deficits. Governor Pierre Wunsch warned in April 2026 that Belgium faces an energy crisis with weakened public finances and limited room for maneuver.

Yet despite these challenges, consumer sentiment is improving. The index stood at -4 in June 2025, meaning confidence remains slightly below where it was a year ago. But the trajectory is positive: from a low of -14 in April 2026, the index has climbed steadily over the past two months.

La Libre, citing the Belga news agency, reported that the last improvement in the indicator prior to June was in January 2026. The March reading had shown a significant deterioration, dropping from -4 to -10.

What’s Driving the Recovery?

The National Bank’s consumer confidence indicator is calculated based on four components: households’ assessments of the general economic situation (past and future), employment expectations, personal financial situations, and savings capacity.

According to the NBB’s analysis, the June improvement was broad-based. The economic outlook component has been strengthening for three consecutive months. Employment expectations, while still subdued, have stabilized. And crucially, households are now more optimistic about their own financial prospects and intend to save more—a sign that they feel more secure about the future.

International Contrast

The Belgian rebound stands in contrast to trends in other major economies. In the United States, consumer confidence hit a record low of 47.6 in April 2026 on the University of Michigan index, driven by energy price shocks linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The Netherlands saw a more dramatic rebound, with Dutch consumer confidence improving from -46 to -39 in June 2026, though from much lower levels.

What to Watch For

While the June reading is encouraging, several caveats remain. The index at -7 is still negative, indicating that cautious sentiment persists. Year-on-year, confidence is below the -4 recorded in June 2025. Employment expectations remain near low levels, and global risks—including the Middle East conflict, energy prices, and broader economic uncertainties—continue to pose threats.

The real test will come in the months ahead. If the trend continues, improved consumer confidence could translate into increased spending, providing a much-needed boost to Belgium’s economy. The National Bank’s next monthly survey, due in July, will show whether June’s improvement was the beginning of a sustained recovery or a temporary bright spot in an otherwise challenging economic landscape.