Why Cottage Cheese Is Disappearing From Store Shelves

If you’ve noticed empty shelves where the cottage cheese used to be, you’re not alone. A nationwide shortage has left shoppers puzzled and grocery stores scrambling as America’s sudden obsession with the once-humble dairy product outstrips the industry’s ability to produce it. The culprit? A perfect storm of TikTok-fueled demand, a broader protein craze, and structural constraints in dairy manufacturing that cannot scale overnight.

The Numbers Tell the Story

The scale of the shift is staggering. U.S. cottage cheese sales grew to more than $2 billion in 2025, an 82% increase from the end of 2022, according to market research firm Circana, as The Business Deck reports. Annual sales rose 11% in 2022, 17% in 2023, another 17% in 2024, and nearly 20% in the 52 weeks leading to mid-June 2025. Production has tried to keep pace — U.S. output reached 1.39 billion pounds in 2025, up 10.9% from 2024, and rose a further 7.6% in the first two months of 2026, according to MCT Dairies. But demand keeps pulling further ahead.

Average consumption rose to 2.4 pounds per person in 2024, the highest since 2009, as Tasting Table notes. Cottage cheese is now consumed in roughly 45% of U.S. households, a dramatic leap from its reputation as a diet-food afterthought.

The TikTok Effect

Cottage cheese has undergone a remarkable cultural transformation. TikTok creators discovered that blended cottage cheese could be transformed into high-protein ice cream, mousse, flatbreads, buffalo chicken dip, and pasta sauces. These videos racked up millions of views, driving a new generation of younger shoppers to seek out the product. As Science Insights explains, the social media momentum translated directly into real purchasing behavior.

Brands have been caught flat-footed. Andrew Westrich, marketing manager at Organic Valley, put it bluntly: “Organic Valley Cottage Cheese is selling faster than we can make it.” Jesse Merrill, CEO of Good Culture, described demand as “insane” — the company posted about ongoing shortages on Instagram in July 2025. Good Culture was later acquired by private equity firm L Catterton for $500 million, fueling consumer suspicion that big money is behind the shortages, a claim the new owners deny, according to Newser.

Why Producers Can’t Just Make More

Dairy manufacturing doesn’t scale like flipping a switch. Most existing cottage cheese production facilities are already running at maximum capacity. Building new production lines or expanding existing ones takes significant time and capital investment. Westby Cooperative Creamery in Wisconsin, for example, produces about 14.5 million pounds of cottage cheese per year, but current orders exceed that capacity by at least 30%. The co-op is installing new cheese vats, but they won’t come online until fall 2026.

There is also a less obvious bottleneck in the milk supply itself. Over decades of breeding for volume, Holstein dairy cows now produce milk with lower solids content. The casein level in milk — the protein that forms curds in cottage cheese — has dropped from about 2.5% to closer to 2.3%, meaning more milk is needed to produce the same amount of cottage cheese.

Ken Meyers, president of MCT Dairies, explains the broader structural shift: “Increased protein intake for muscle health, weight loss, and overall health continues to be the top dietary trend. High demand for protein will continue to draw milk away from dryers and into high-protein products for the foreseeable future.” The 2026 U.S. dietary guidelines now recommend 1.2 to 1.6 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight, up from 0.8, further fueling demand.

A Recall Added to the Pressure

In February 2026, Saputo Cheese USA voluntarily recalled Great Value cottage cheese sold at Walmart across 24 states after discovering potential inadequate pasteurization in liquid dairy ingredients, according to the FDA. While no illnesses were reported, the removal of product from shelves in that many states during an already tight supply period made the shortage more visible to shoppers in those regions.

What’s Next

Industry analysts believe this is more than a passing fad. John Crawford, VP at Circana, says consumer interest in cottage cheese “seems sticky” and is bringing in many first-time buyers. Unlike past food trends, cottage cheese offers genuine nutritional value — high protein, low sugar, and affordability — that aligns with long-term dietary shifts.

Major investments are underway. Upstate Niagara is pouring $275 million into expanding high-protein production. Daisy Brand has broken ground on a new Iowa plant. But these facilities take years, not months, to come online. In the meantime, shoppers can expect spot shortages to continue, particularly for popular brands like Good Culture and Organic Valley. Mainstream store brands may remain more readily available.

For now, the cottage cheese shortage serves as a fascinating case study in how social media, shifting dietary habits, and structural industry constraints can collide — leaving America’s dairy aisles unexpectedly bare.