Yangtze River Basin Braces for Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River remain the core area for heavy rainfall as China’s plum rain (Meiyu) season intensifies, with authorities warning of high disaster risks across a dozen provinces. From June 22 to 24, the main rainband will persist over the Yangtze corridor, bringing torrential downpours and extreme rainstorms to parts of Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, according to China Weather Network via Xinhua News.
The Plum Rain Season Arrives
The National Climate Center confirmed on June 21 that the Meiyu season has fully begun across China’s eastern and central regions. The Jiangnan area and the middle-lower Yangtze entered the plum rain period on June 18 — three days later than the historical average — while the Jianghuai region followed on June 19, arriving four days earlier than usual. The National Climate Center predicts the overall Meiyu period will be shorter than average but more intense, with the Jiangnan region expected to receive 10 to 30 percent more rainfall than normal.
In a report published on June 21, Xinhua News Agency quoted a National Climate Center expert who warned that global warming is increasing both the frequency and intensity of localized heavy precipitation events in China. “Affected by global warming, the frequency and intensity of localized heavy precipitation in China are both on the rise, with stronger extremes,” the expert said. “It is recommended to prepare for river flood control, urban rainstorm waterlogging, mountain torrents, and geological disasters.”
Current Rainfall and Forecast
Over the next three days, the convergence of cold and warm air masses will keep the primary rainband locked over the Yangtze River corridor. The Central Meteorological Observatory has forecast heavy to torrential rain across a broad swath of central and eastern China, with localized areas in central and eastern Guizhou, western Hunan, northern Jiangxi, and southern Jiangsu expected to experience extreme rainstorms exceeding 250 millimeters.
According to the Xinhua report, the China Weather Network warned the public to pay close attention to weather alerts and avoid mountainous areas prone to geological disasters. “Over the next three days, the main rainband will remain concentrated along the Yangtze River,” the network stated. “Parts of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and other areas will see heavy rainfall accompanied by severe convective weather.”
Emergency Response and Preparations
Chinese authorities have been on high alert since early June. On June 7, the China Meteorological Administration upgraded its emergency response to Level III for heavy rain, while the Ministry of Water Resources activated Level IV flood defense responses for six provinces, including Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou. People’s Daily reported on June 8 that multiple government departments were coordinating flood control efforts.
By June 12, the National Flood Control Headquarters and the Yangtze River Flood Control Headquarters had activated Level IV emergency responses for Hunan Province. The following day, heavy rain caused 67 reservoirs in Hunan to spill over, and 27 counties across the province activated flood response measures, according to Hunan Daily.
High-Risk Areas and Potential Impacts
Central Meteorological Observatory experts have identified Anhui, Hunan, Guangxi, and Guizhou as areas with the highest accumulated rainfall and disaster risk. Special attention is being paid to water level changes at Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake — two major freshwater lakes in the middle reaches of the Yangtze that serve as critical flood buffers.
The risks are cascading: mountain torrents and landslides threaten mountainous regions of Guizhou and western Hunan; urban waterlogging looms over major cities including Wuhan, Nanjing, and Hefei; and small-to-medium river flooding could inundate farmland across the agricultural heartland. The Yangtze River shipping lane, a vital economic artery, may also face disruptions from high water levels.
A Tale of Two Climates
While the Yangtze basin experiences unseasonably cool and wet weather — with temperatures hovering around 25°C in Hefei, Wuhan, and Shanghai — southern China is grappling with an entirely different hazard. Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and parts of Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hunan are experiencing widespread heatwaves, with high temperatures and oppressive humidity. The dual-hazard scenario underscores the complexity of China’s current weather pattern.
Looking Ahead
Forecast models suggest the rainband will shift southward around June 25, allowing temperatures in the Yangtze middle and lower reaches to rise back to approximately 30°C. However, a new round of heavy rainfall is expected from June 23 to 26, targeting southwestern China, northern and western Jiangnan, and northwestern South China.
The Yangtze River Water Resources Commission has described the flood control situation as “severe and complex,” noting that the intensity and duration of this year’s Meiyu rainfall carry high disaster risk. With climate change driving more extreme precipitation patterns, the coming days will test the resilience of flood control infrastructure across China’s most economically vital region.
As the Yangtze basin endures what Chinese media has dubbed a “violent Meiyu,” the focus remains on water levels at Dongting and Poyang lakes, the activation of further emergency responses, and the safety of the millions who live and work along China’s longest river.