10 Years After Brexit: Britons Stunned by Their Own Decision

Ten years ago today, on June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted by 51.9% to 48.1% to leave the European Union — a result that stunned even many of those who voted for it. The referendum, called by then-Prime Minister David Cameron as a political gamble, triggered a decade of unprecedented political instability, economic underperformance, and a profound shift in public opinion that has left the country deeply divided.

The Referendum That Shocked a Nation

When Britons went to the polls on June 23, 2016, initial exit polls had projected a Remain victory at 52%. But as results came in through the night, the Leave campaign pulled ahead. By dawn, it was clear: 17.4 million people had voted to leave, against 16.1 million who voted to remain. According to VRT NWS, the result exposed a deeply divided kingdom — England and Wales voted Leave while Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London voted Remain. Older and rural voters largely backed Brexit; younger and urban voters opposed it.

David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote. “The British people have made a clear decision to take a different path,” he said. “I think the country needs a fresh leader.”

A Decade of Political Turmoil

The political fallout has been extraordinary. In the ten years since the referendum, the UK has had seven prime ministers: Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss (who lasted just 49 days), Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, and now the incoming Andy Burnham. As CNBC reports, no prime minister has lasted longer than three years since the vote.

Keir Starmer, who became prime minister in July 2024 and pursued a cautious “reset” of UK-EU relations, resigned on June 22, 2026 — the eve of the anniversary — amid a leadership challenge. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is expected to become the seventh prime minister in a decade.

The Economic “Slow Puncture”

Brexit’s economic impact has been significant and persistent. Stanford professor Nicholas Bloom estimates that Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, attributing this to “elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources.” The Office for Budget Responsibility has confirmed reduced productivity, imports, and exports.

Sterling has traded approximately 10% below pre-referendum levels, with CNBC reporting that the pound has spent 98% of trading days since the vote below €1.20. The EU remains the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for 41% of UK exports and 50% of imports.

Immigration: Unintended Consequences

The Leave campaign’s flagship promise was to “take back control” of borders. But the outcome has been paradoxical. EU net migration turned negative in 2022, yet non-EU migration surged due to labor shortages, an increase in international students, and humanitarian schemes. As CBS News reports, the UK now has net emigration with EU countries but significantly higher migration from outside the bloc.

Public Opinion: The “Bregret” Phenomenon

Perhaps the most striking shift has been in public opinion. According to a YouGov poll published on June 9, 2026, 57% of Britons now believe the UK was wrong to leave the EU, while only 30% still support the decision. Nearly a quarter of Leave voters (23%) now regret their vote — a phenomenon dubbed “Bregret.”

Six in ten Britons (61%) consider Brexit a failure, with only 12% viewing it as a success. While 55% support rejoining the EU in principle, support drops to 35% if the UK would be required to join the Euro and Schengen zone.

The Demographic Shift

Pollster Peter Kellner has noted that the pro-Brexit majority “has literally died out.” Approximately 6 million voters from 2016 have since passed away, while a younger, more pro-EU generation has come of age. Three-fifths of Gen Z Britons say they want a new referendum on EU membership.

The Farage Paradox

Despite widespread perception of Brexit as a failure, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party leads the polls at approximately 25% — a paradox that analysts attribute to Brexit fatigue and anti-establishment sentiment. As UK in a Changing Europe director Anand Menon notes, “Brexit further eroded the organic ties that once linked parties to their voters.”

Farage himself remains unapologetic. “Absolutely the right thing to do,” he said of the Brexit vote. “The earthquake that happened 10 years ago was not accepted by the establishment.”

What’s Next for UK-EU Relations?

Under Starmer, the UK and EU signed new security and defense agreements, re-entered the Erasmus+ program, and reached SPS agreements on food and customs. The war in Ukraine and geopolitical shifts have pushed both sides closer together.

Andy Burnham, the presumptive next prime minister, has said he hopes the UK will rejoin the EU in his lifetime — but has also cautioned that “the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments.” The question of whether the UK will ever return to the European fold remains one of the most consequential open questions in British politics.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan summed up the mood of many: “The consequences 10 years on are worse than we feared.”