Farmers See Little Relief Despite Iran Fertilizer Deal

American farmers hoping for a financial reprieve after the tentative U.S.-Iran peace deal are finding that relief on the ground remains elusive. While wholesale fertilizer prices tumbled — urea fell 50% from its April peak — farmers who already purchased inputs at crisis-level prices or missed the planting window say the damage is already done, and a full recovery may not come until 2027.

The Fertilizer Shock

The crisis began in January 2026 when the Strait of Hormuz was closed following the outbreak of war with Iran. The strait carries roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer exports, including approximately 30% of global urea trade and 25% of ammonia. Persian Gulf nations account for nearly half of the world’s urea export capacity.

By April, urea prices had roughly doubled from prewar levels. Anhydrous ammonia in Illinois rose from $828 per ton to $1,123 per ton — a 35% increase, according to USDA pricing data cited by HNGN. A coalition of 54 agricultural groups wrote to President Trump urging immediate relief.

On-the-Ground Reality

For Ryan Poe, a fifth-generation wheat farmer in Hartline, Washington, the headlines about falling prices bear little resemblance to what he sees on his farm. Poe already bought most of his fertilizer for the year before the peace deal and estimates he spent roughly 23% more this spring than before the war.

“Maybe a global supplier of fertilizer sees that kind of instant price change,” Poe told NPR. “But for me, on the farm, there’s been no change in fertilizer price.”

Iowa soybean farmer Dave Walton decided to buy less fertilizer this year, trying to stretch what he has through the end of the season. “Every time I pull a tractor into a field, it just cost more because everything has gone up,” Walton said. “The squeeze on our margin is real.” He added that some of his neighbors are “one bad year away from getting out of business.”

A survey of 5,700 farmers conducted April 3-11 by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70% cannot afford all the fertilizer they need, and nearly 60% say their finances have deteriorated due to rising fertilizer and fuel costs.

Regional Disparities

The pain is not evenly distributed. Midwestern farmers who locked in fertilizer prices before the Strait closure — and who source much of their supply from Canada — are in a stronger position. Kevin Deinert, a grain farmer in Mount Vernon, South Dakota, told NPR that supply chains appear to be stabilizing. “Things seem to have stabilized, or at least we’ve come to a new normal of what to expect,” he said.

But in South Carolina, the story is different. Thomas Legare, a farm owner on James Island, said some of his neighbors skipped corn planting entirely this spring. “Some of my friends that plant corn just didn’t plant any corn this spring and said it wasn’t worth it because of the fertilizer prices and the drought,” Legare told WCSC/Fox Carolina.

Frank Hefner, a professor of economics at the College of Charleston, warned of long-term consequences. “There’s also a time to fertilize the land. And if you’ve missed it, you’ve missed it,” Hefner said. “It’s going to have long-term consequences.”

Political Fallout

The crisis is taking a political toll. President Trump has requested $11 billion in additional farm aid as part of a nearly $90 billion Iran funding bill, on top of $12 billion already paid out earlier in 2026, according to Agri-Pulse. The administration has also proposed forcing Iran to buy U.S. agricultural products using unfrozen assets — a plan Iran quickly rejected and that Republican pollster Whit Ayres called “smoke and mirrors.”

Rural voters’ net approval of Trump has plummeted from +22 percentage points in February to -10 in June, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) went further, telling the American Ag Network that the war was “an excuse to raise urea prices 49 percent almost immediately after the war started.”

What’s Next

The USDA forecasts that energy and fertilizer prices will not decline substantially until 2027, with overall production costs for farmers still hitting record highs next year. Reduced nitrogen applications during the 2026 planting season will likely lower fall yields, and the shift toward less fertilizer-intensive soybeans — with corn and wheat plantings each down roughly 3% — may create oversupply in soybean markets.

Whether the Iran peace deal holds through its 60-day negotiating window remains the critical variable. For now, American farmers are left waiting — and hoping — for relief that has yet to arrive at the farm gate.