Oil Prices Drop to Pre-Iran War Levels: Relief at the Pump?

Oil prices have fallen back to levels not seen since before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February 2026, with Brent crude trading around $73 per barrel. The dramatic decline from a peak of roughly $118 per barrel in March and April offers potential relief for consumers at the pump — but experts warn that natural gas prices remain elevated and significant risks persist.

The Price Picture

Global benchmark Brent crude briefly dipped below $72.48 a barrel — the exact pre-war level — before settling at $73.23, according to BBC News. The drop follows the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum on 17 June, a 60-day framework for negotiations between the US and Iran that triggered a roughly 15% plunge in oil prices.

VRT NWS reports that the price of a barrel of Brent crude is now back to levels seen just before the conflict erupted on 28 February. However, Thijs Van de Graaf, Professor of Energy Politics at Ghent University (UGent), cautions against premature optimism: “You have to keep in mind that prices were already rising in the run-up to the war. We haven’t yet reached the normal level from before the war, from late December-early January.”

Why Prices Dropped

The sharp decline in oil prices is the result of several converging factors. The Islamabad Memorandum de-escalated the geopolitical risk premium that had been baked into prices. Since the deal, 284 vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz between 18 and 25 June, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler — though this remains well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 138 crossings per day.

Professor Van de Graaf described the supply disruption as the largest in history: “12 to 13 million barrels per day were stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, roughly one-fifth of total supply. By comparison, the oil crisis of the early 1970s was only 7 percent.”

He also highlighted China’s critical role as a “shock absorber” for global markets. “China has enormous reserves, but rarely communicates about them. It can hardly be otherwise that they deployed those reserves,” Van de Graaf said, noting that Beijing dramatically reduced its oil imports during the crisis.

What It Means for Your Wallet

For Belgian consumers, the most immediate impact should be visible at the fuel pump. On 14 June, unleaded petrol stood at EUR 1.928 per litre and diesel at EUR 2.026 per litre. As wholesale oil prices continue to fall, these prices are expected to follow.

In the UK, Simon Williams of the RAC said drivers “should see the average price of petrol fall below 150p a litre in the next week or so,” with diesel expected to drop under 160p. In the US, average regular gasoline has already fallen to roughly $3.93 per gallon after peaking at $4 in April.

However, US President Donald Trump has accused major energy companies of price-gouging. He ordered an investigation into Shell, ExxonMobil, BP and Chevron, stating: “Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be.”

The Natural Gas Warning

While oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, natural gas tells a different story. Long-term gas contracts are hovering around EUR 40-42 per MWh — significantly above the EUR 30 per MWh or less seen in February 2026.

The reason is clear: Qatar, a major gas supplier to Belgium, suffered direct damage to its gas infrastructure during the conflict. Van de Graaf noted that Qatar has indicated it will take more than three years to repair the damage. “That is precisely the natural gas that is supplied to Belgium,” he said.

This creates a significant risk for the coming winter. Countries are refilling gas reserves more slowly than usual this summer, and any unexpected events could drive prices sharply higher.

A New Normal

Professor Van de Graaf warns that the energy landscape has fundamentally changed. “This is the new normal: the lack of transparency about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran threatening again at certain moments to close the strait… And before you know it, prices shoot up again.”

Pratibha Thaker of the Economist Intelligence Unit echoed this caution: “Markets are still watching the region closely, and any renewed tensions could quickly send oil higher again.”

Looking Ahead

For Belgian consumers, the short-term outlook for fuel prices is positive as oil declines feed through to the pump. But the medium-term picture for gas bills remains uncertain, with winter supply risks and Qatar’s prolonged repair timeline casting a shadow.

Van de Graaf’s long-term advice is unequivocal: “If you continue to heat with gas and drive on fossil fuels, it is inevitable that you will experience such shocks again.” He advocates for accelerated electrification based on solar, wind and nuclear energy to decouple from fossil fuel volatility.

As the 60-day negotiation window between the US and Iran unfolds, the world will be watching closely. For now, the relief at the pump is welcome — but the underlying vulnerabilities in global energy markets remain very much intact.