Trump-Backed Candidates Dominate GOP Primaries Ahead of 2026 Midterms
President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates are maintaining a near-perfect record in Republican primary elections as the 2026 midterm season intensifies, demonstrating an unprecedented level of influence over the party that political observers say has no modern parallel. According to USA Today, out of 312 primary endorsements this cycle, Trump carries a 98% success rate across congressional, state legislative, and statewide contests.
A Historic Grip on the Party
Trump’s endorsement success rate has climbed steadily over successive election cycles: 95% in 2018, 93% in 2022, 96% in 2024, and now near-perfect in 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking. The president has reshaped the Republican Party by targeting incumbents who crossed him, including Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, Texas Sen. John Cornyn, and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie — all of whom lost primary bids this year after defying Trump.
“There’s no modern president whose influence within his party has come anywhere close to that of Donald Trump in terms of both being willing to endorse and then having such success with his endorsements,” Mark P. Jones, a Rice University political science professor, told USA Today. “It’s very difficult for someone to win if Trump has endorsed their opponent.”
Louisiana Senate Runoff: A Key Test
On Saturday, June 27, Louisiana voters are heading to the polls for a GOP Senate runoff between Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming. The race will determine who succeeds Sen. Bill Cassidy, whom Trump targeted after Cassidy voted to convict the president in his 2021 impeachment trial. As AP News reports, Letlow finished first in the May 16 primary with nearly 45% of the vote, followed by Fleming at roughly 28% and Cassidy at 25%.
Letlow, who was elected to the House in 2021 after her husband won the same seat but died before taking office, received Trump’s endorsement before entering the Senate race in January. “We have a chance to send a clear message that Louisiana stands with President Trump,” Letlow said during an online rally with the president on June 25. “He endorsed me because he knows I will stand with him.”
Fleming, a founder of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who later served in Trump’s first administration, has appealed to the MAGA base by emphasizing his early conservative credentials. “I said nobody has been more loyal to you than me,” Fleming recounted of his phone conversation with Trump during a campaign stop. A super PAC supporting Letlow has spent $4 million since the primary, far outpacing direct campaign spending of roughly $1 million each.
Alaska Ballot Controversy
In a separate development, an Alaska Superior Court judge ruled on June 27 that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares the same name and party affiliation as incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, is eligible for the August primary ballot. As AP News reports, Judge Thomas Matthews overturned a June 15 decision by the state elections director to disqualify the challenger, ruling that the disqualification was based on a “new, previously unstated, ‘good faith’ criteria.”
The ruling adds an unusual twist to Alaska’s top-four primary system, where the top four candidates regardless of party advance to a ranked-choice general election. The state has a Tuesday deadline for a final ruling so that ballots for the August 18 primary can be printed. The decision can be appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court.
Notable Exceptions to Trump’s Dominance
Despite his near-perfect record, Trump has suffered notable losses that highlight growing fractures within the MAGA movement. In Iowa’s June 3 gubernatorial primary, Zach Lahn defeated Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than 1 percentage point, running on a platform aligned with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.
In Georgia, billionaire health care CEO Rick Jackson defeated Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the June 17 runoff after spending over $100 million of his personal wealth. Trump nonetheless took credit for the outcome, posting on Truth Social: “Congratulations to Rick Jackson, who very successfully campaigned on being ‘TRUMP,’ and won.”
The General Election Challenge
While Trump’s primary dominance is clear, political analysts warn that his grip on the party could prove costly in the general election. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released June 18 found 80% of Republicans approve of Trump, but only 28% of independents and 5% of Democrats share that view. An American Research Group survey found just 25% of independents approve of the president’s job performance.
Democrats are seeking to tie GOP candidates to Trump in swing states. In Nevada, Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is challenging Trump-endorsed Gov. Joe Lombardo in a race rated a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, told USA Today: “The fact of the matter is Trump and Lombardo are two peas in a pod.”
“Each of these Trump-endorsed candidates has pledged their loyalty to a president that has made the lives of our American families that much harder,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, told USA Today.
What to Watch
With five months until the November general election, key questions remain. The Louisiana runoff result will signal whether Trump’s endorsement remains decisive in competitive intra-party contests. The Alaska Supreme Court’s decision on the Sullivan ballot appeal could reshape one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. And the RNC’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas this summer, where Trump is expected to speak, will offer a preview of the general election strategy.
As Jones noted, Trump’s insistence on near-absolute loyalty has made it difficult for Republicans in competitive races to distance themselves from the president. “Under the current situation,” he said, “there’s no real way for Republicans to distance themselves from him, so at very least they need to utilize him to motivate his supporters to turn out to vote in an election where he’s not on the ballot.”