US and Iran Trade Strikes as Fragile Ceasefire Unravels
The United States and Iran have exchanged a new round of military strikes, plunging a two-week-old ceasefire agreement into grave uncertainty. US Central Command announced that American fighter jets struck 10 Iranian military targets on Saturday in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial oil tanker, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by launching missile and drone operations against US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The escalation marks the most serious breach of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed less than two weeks ago between President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which was intended to halt a four-month-old war and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Triggering Incident
According to US Central Command, the latest cycle of violence began early Saturday morning when an Iranian one-way attack drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku as it was transiting near the Strait of Hormuz carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil.
“Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to when its forces launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning,” Central Command said in a statement, adding that the US strikes targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities.
Iranian Retaliation
Iran’s IRGC responded swiftly, announcing that it had launched joint missile and drone operations targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. The specific targets included the US Fifth Naval Fleet at Port Salman in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, according to USA Today.
A US official confirmed the attacks on American facilities but stated there were no reported US casualties or major damage to US sites in the Middle East at this time. Bahrain condemned the Iranian drone strike as a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty and activated air defense sirens.
The IRGC warned that US strikes had violated the ceasefire and “will result in the complete halt of all diplomatic processes.” The IRGC Navy command issued an additional threat, stating: “The American bases in the region are a separate matter. They will experience hell in these days.”
Trump’s Warning
President Trump posted on social media Saturday, accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire and issuing a stark warning. “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started,” Trump wrote. “If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”
Earlier, Trump had posted: “American fighter jets just struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar stations because they violated the ceasefire again!”
Ceasefire in Jeopardy
The 14-point MoU, signed by Trump and Pezeshkian less than two weeks ago, was designed to halt hostilities that began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. The agreement aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — which carries approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies — and lay the groundwork for negotiations on deeper issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.
One round of mediated talks had been held in Switzerland just a week prior, led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Washington had also waived sanctions on Tehran as part of the diplomatic process.
However, both sides have accused each other of violating the terms. Iran claims the MoU gives it control over transit in the Strait of Hormuz and that ships using the waterway without its permission will be “dealt with more forcefully.” The US, by contrast, has been promoting a southern shipping lane along the coast of Oman, while Tehran insists vessels use a northern route through Iranian waters.
Broader Regional Context
The US-Iran conflict remains inseparable from the broader regional situation. Iran accuses the US of failing to uphold ceasefire commitments in Lebanon, where Israel invaded in March in pursuit of Hezbollah. A separate US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon was signed on June 26-27, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as “a massive blow to Iran.”
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, posted on X: “The U.S. attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations once again. The failed U.S. President has shown he has no commitment to the principles of negotiation or a ceasefire. This reckless violation of the ceasefire will, as always, lead to retreat and regret on their part.”
Strait of Hormuz and Economic Impact
Despite the escalating attacks, US Central Command stated that commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz continue. The waterway had just begun to reopen after months of disruption, with hundreds of ships — including oil tankers — blockaded inside the Gulf since the war began.
Oil prices had tumbled close to pre-war levels as vessels began leaving the Gulf through the strait over the past two weeks. However, the renewed hostilities threaten to reverse this progress. The International Energy Agency had approved the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in history — 400 million barrels — in March 2026 to stabilize global markets.
What to Watch
The coming days will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire can be salvaged or whether the region will slide back into full-scale conflict. Key questions include whether diplomatic channels through Switzerland can survive the current escalation, how Gulf states like Bahrain and Kuwait will respond to being drawn into the confrontation, and what impact the renewed fighting will have on global oil markets.
As Al Jazeera reported, analysts warn that the pattern of tit-for-tat strikes could set off a domino effect, with each side feeling compelled to respond to the other’s actions. The IRGC has made clear that any further US aggression will be met with a “crushing response,” while President Trump has signaled that Washington may be reaching the limits of its patience with diplomatic approaches.
For now, the fragile peace that held for less than two weeks hangs by a thread.