Belgian Salaried Employment Stagnates as Flexi-Jobs Surge

Salaried employment growth in Belgium has been virtually stagnant over the past three years, with effective working hours rising by a mere 0.7% and paid working hours by just 0.8% between 2022 and early 2026, according to a new analysis by economist Philippe Defeyt. The figures, which Defeyt describes as “ridiculous growth in three years,” raise serious questions about the health of the Belgian labor market and the effectiveness of current employment policies under the De Wever government.

The Numbers Behind the Stagnation

Defeyt’s latest statistical note, published on June 28, compiles data from the National Bank of Belgium, the National Social Security Office (ONSS), and other official sources to paint a sobering picture. The headline figures of +0.7% for effective working hours and +0.8% for paid working hours represent annualized growth of approximately 0.23-0.27% per year — far below what would be needed to absorb new entrants to the labor market and reduce unemployment.

As La Libre Belgique reports, Defeyt warns that the overall employment figures are “flattered by the very vigorous development of non-conventional employment (student jobs and flexi-jobs).” When these forms of work are stripped out, salaried employment has actually been declining since it peaked in the second quarter of 2023.

The Flexi-Job Distortion

Flexi-jobs — tax-free supplemental income arrangements originally created in 2015 for the Horeca sector — have exploded in popularity. Their share of non-conventional work hours rose from 5.8% in 2017 to 27.9% in 2024-2025. Today, flexi-jobbers and student workers together represent 3.4% of all hours worked in Belgium.

This growth has come partly at the expense of student employment, which has fallen from 94.2% of non-conventional hours in 2017 to 72.1% today. Critics argue that flexi-jobs may be cannibalizing regular salaried positions (CDI/CDD), while supporters see them as a way to increase labor market flexibility.

The timing is particularly significant. As of July 1, 2026, flexi-jobs have been extended to virtually all sectors, following parliamentary approval on June 19. The annual income cap has risen from 12,000 EUR to 18,000 EUR, and the hourly maximum from 17 EUR to 21 EUR.

Regional Disparities Widen

The data reveals a growing divergence between Belgium’s regions. Wallonia has been hit hardest: job vacancies fell 14.5% overall and 16.3% for permanent positions in the third quarter of 2025, compared to declines of 8.5% and 8.2% in Flanders. Total unemployed jobseekers rose 7.9% nationally over the past year, but the increase was 12.3% in Wallonia, 5.5% in Flanders, and just 1.7% in Brussels.

Youth unemployment is particularly concerning in Wallonia, where unemployment rose 11.0% among under-25s, 13.1% among 25-49 year-olds, and 11.2% among those aged 50 and over.

Official Data Confirms the Trend

The ONSS published its first-quarter 2026 data on June 26, showing the number of jobs grew by just 0.1%, total work volume by 0.2%, while the number of salaried employees actually fell by 0.1%. Industry and construction were particularly hard hit, with employment declining by 1.3%. Workers over 65 saw a dramatic 30.5% increase, while workers under 25 experienced a 3.1% decline.

As ONSS notes, the labor market shows “modest growth but sectoral disparities remain important.” For the first time since early 2022, more service-sector employers expect employment to decrease than increase — a significant leading indicator given that services are the largest employment sector in modern economies.

Policy Implications

The stagnation comes at a critical juncture for Belgian labor policy. The De Wever government, in power since February 2025, has set an ambitious target of raising the employment rate to 80% by 2029, up from a projected 74.3% under unchanged policies. Major reforms include limiting unemployment benefits to a maximum of two years as of January 1, 2026 — a fundamental shift from Belgium’s previous system of near-unlimited duration benefits.

Defeyt’s data suggests the labor market is not generating enough quality jobs to absorb those who will lose benefits under the new time limit. The expansion of flexi-jobs may further accelerate the substitution of stable employment with precarious work.

What to Watch

Several questions remain unanswered. Will the extension of flexi-jobs to all sectors further cannibalize regular employment? How will the Walloon and Brussels regional governments respond to the widening employment gap with Flanders? And perhaps most critically, with current trends showing stagnation rather than growth, is the government’s 80% employment target by 2029 realistic?

Defeyt has also criticized the lack of recent data on self-employed and sick workers as “pitiful and irresponsible,” raising concerns about whether policymakers have the information they need to make informed decisions. As Belgium enters a new phase of labor market reform, the gap between political ambition and economic reality has rarely been wider.