Belgium Counts Heatwave Cost: Excess Deaths, Energy Spikes

Belgium is reckoning with the severe consequences of a 12-day heatwave that ended on 29 June, as preliminary data reveals a sharp rise in at-home deaths, electricity prices spiking to nearly €600 per megawatt-hour during evening peaks, and an estimated economic loss of nearly half a billion euros in just three days. Compounding the crisis, meteorologists are warning that another heatwave may arrive around 10 July.

A Deadly Toll

During the peak week of the heatwave — 23 to 28 June — the proportion of deaths recorded at home rose from 22.1% to 29.9%, according to data from the new Flemish eLys digital death certificate platform. Johan Dexters of Funebra, the professional association of funeral directors, told Het Laatste Nieuws that this increase comes even as deaths in hospitals and care homes are declining. “We want to interpret these figures with caution,” Dexters said, noting that year-on-year comparisons are not yet possible as eLys only began operating in January 2026.

Funeral homes are feeling the strain. Eric Schellebroodt, a funeral director in Tihange, told RTBF that he felt a real increase in deaths from Saturday 27 June, primarily among elderly people with pre-existing health conditions. “If the heatwave continues, undoubtedly deaths will continue to arrive in large numbers,” he warned.

Emergency services were pushed to their limits. The Federal Public Service for Health reported 11,784 emergency calls on Friday 26 June — nearly double the usual 6,000 — while ambulance interventions rose from 2,500 to 4,324. An additional 20 ambulances were deployed, and geriatrics wards reached maximum capacity, requiring patient transfers to other facilities.

Across Europe, the heatwave was the most severe June event on record, with the World Health Organization reporting over 1,300 excess deaths across the continent since 21 June.

Energy Prices Surge

Even as temperatures have cooled, electricity prices remain extraordinarily high. On Tuesday 30 June, the evening peak at 20:45 reached nearly €600 per megawatt-hour, following a peak of €484 on Monday evening. During the heatwave itself, prices briefly exceeded €1,000 per MWh on 24 June — more than ten times the normal price of around €80.

According to Het Laatste Nieuws, the cause is a combination of factors: solar panels generate abundant electricity during the day, but gas plants must take over in the evening at high prices. Low wind generation and the absence of nuclear production — with Doel 4 and Tihange 3 offline for maintenance until November 2026 — have compounded the problem.

For most consumers, the impact is limited. Households on fixed contracts are largely unaffected, while those on dynamic contracts — representing less than 1% of all contracts — are advised to shift their usage away from peak hours. Tap water consumption in Flanders also reached its highest level in five years on 26 June, with 1,351,622 cubic meters used in a single day.

Half a Billion Euros in Three Days

The economic toll has been staggering. Allianz Trade, the credit insurance group, estimates that the heatwave cost Belgium nearly half a billion euros in just three days at the end of last week, as DH Les Sports+ reported. The primary driver was decreased productivity — fatigue, lack of sleep, concentration difficulties, and machine slowdowns.

Belgian labor law mandates work interruptions from 26°C for moderately heavy activities in sectors such as hospitality, factories, and warehouses. The sectors most affected include construction, manufacturing, delivery services, and agriculture.

Broader research from Allianz Trade warns that extreme heat could cause cumulative GDP losses of 5-7% in the most exposed European economies between 2026 and 2030, with productivity losses intensifying sharply above 30°C.

Another Heatwave on the Horizon

As Belgium catches its breath, climatologists are already tracking a potential return of extreme heat. Xavier Fettweis, a climatologist at the University of Liège, told La Libre Belgique that the risk of another heat spike “does exist, even if the intensity remains to be defined.” Weather models indicate a possible return of strong heat around 10 July, described as “a huge bubble of hot air” with potentially different temperature patterns. The Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) forecasts maximum temperatures of 25°C for the coming week, offering no immediate relief from the threat.

Looking Ahead

The heatwave has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Belgium’s public health, energy, and economic systems. The rise in at-home deaths suggests that vulnerable and isolated populations may not have received adequate support. The energy price spikes highlight the country’s dependence on gas plants during nuclear maintenance and the urgent need for battery storage to capture daytime solar output for evening peaks.

With another heatwave potentially just ten days away, Belgium faces a compressed recovery period. Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke has urged citizens to check on vulnerable neighbors, saying: “A phone call, a visit, or a glass of water can make all the difference.” The question now is whether the lessons of this heatwave will translate into action before the next one arrives.