Texas Senate Race Tied: Talarico, Paxton Deadlocked in Poll

A stunning new poll from The New York Times and Siena College has thrown the Texas U.S. Senate race into the national spotlight, showing Democratic challenger James Talarico tied with Republican incumbent Ken Paxton at 47% each among likely voters. The survey, conducted June 19–27 among 656 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of ±4.5 percentage points, suggests that a state which has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than three decades could be genuinely competitive this November.

A Race That Defies Expectations

The poll represents a remarkable shift in a state long considered a Republican stronghold. Texas has not voted for a Democratic Senate candidate since 1988, and no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994. Yet the NYT/Siena poll shows a dead heat, with 6% of voters undecided and less than 1% supporting another candidate.

This finding aligns with a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted June 5–12, which showed Paxton leading Talarico 43% to 42% — a margin well within the survey’s ±3.5-point error range. The consistency across two major polls underscores a rapidly shifting political landscape in the Lone Star State.

The Voter Divide

The poll reveals sharp demographic splits that will likely define the race through November. Paxton leads decisively among men, 57% to 36%, while Talarico enjoys a similar advantage with women, 56% to 38%. Age is another dividing line: Talarico runs strongest with voters under 44, while Paxton draws support from those 45 and older.

Racial and ethnic breakdowns tell an equally compelling story. Paxton draws 59% of white voters, 13% of Black voters, and 29% of Hispanic voters. Talarico counters with 37%, 80%, and 61% of those same groups, respectively. Talarico’s strong performance among Hispanic voters — a key swing demographic that has trended rightward in recent cycles — is particularly notable.

Character and Scandal

Perhaps the most telling numbers in the poll concern voter perceptions of the candidates’ character. A majority of voters — 56% — say Talarico has “good character,” compared to just 38% for Paxton. Similarly, 51% say Talarico has “the right kind of moral values,” versus 39% for Paxton. Meanwhile, 50% of voters describe Paxton as “too extreme,” compared to 43% for Talarico.

These numbers reflect the baggage Paxton carries into the general election. The Texas Attorney General has been indicted on felony securities fraud charges since 2015, was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 for abuse of office and bribery, and faced a suspension from office during those proceedings. His bitter primary victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in May further exposed fractures within the Texas Republican Party.

Talarico’s Unprecedented Rise

James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative from Round Rock, has emerged as a national Democratic star through a combination of viral moments and record-breaking fundraising. A former middle school teacher with a Master of Divinity from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary, Talarico raised over $27 million in the first quarter of 2026 — more than any Senate campaign in history for that period and more than double what previous Texas Democratic nominees Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke raised in comparable quarters.

His campaign has drawn attention for its crossover appeal. Major Texas newspapers including the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Dallas Morning News, and Fort Worth Star-Telegram have all endorsed him. His appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience in July 2025 and a viral CBS controversy — in which Stephen Colbert posted Talarico’s canceled Late Show interview to YouTube, where it garnered 7.3 million views — have amplified his national profile.

The Senate Control Factor

The Texas race carries implications far beyond the state’s borders. Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the U.S. Senate, and a competitive race in the nation’s second-largest state could force Republicans to divert resources from other battlegrounds. However, the poll contains a cautionary note for Talarico: 50% of Texans say they prefer Republicans to control the Senate, compared to 44% who prefer Democratic control.

Don Levy, Executive Director of the Siena Research Institute, summed up the dynamic: “Texas may be in play this cycle, as our polling shows Republican Ken Paxton locked in a tie with Democrat James Talarico in new Times/Siena polling. How will voters ultimately decide this crucial race? A majority prefers Republicans retain control of the senate — score one for Paxton — but on character and the right kind of moral values, voters give Talarico the nod.”

What to Watch

Several key questions will determine the outcome in November. Can Talarico turn out young and diverse voters in a non-presidential year? Will the more than one-third of independent voters who remain undecided break decisively for one candidate? And can Paxton’s 84% consolidation of Republican voters hold, or will defections from Cornyn supporters — the 5% of Republicans who currently say they will vote for Talarico — prove decisive?

With record fundraising, a deeply polarizing opponent, and demographic trends that favor Democrats, Talarico has given his party something it has not had in Texas in a generation: a realistic chance. Whether that translates into victory in November remains the defining question of one of the most closely watched races in the country.