Belgium on Track to Break Electricity Import Record Amid Heatwave and Nuclear Phase-Out

Belgium is heading towards a record-breaking year for electricity imports in 2026, driven by a severe European heatwave, surging demand for air conditioning, and the continued phase-out of its nuclear power capacity. According to data from the federal energy regulator CREG, Belgium imported 12.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the first half of 2026 alone — a pace that, if sustained through the second half, would push net imports to approximately 25 TWh, far surpassing the previous annual record set in 2015.

The figures, reported by La Libre Belgique, highlight the mounting pressure on Belgium’s energy system as the country navigates a complex transition away from nuclear power while confronting the realities of a rapidly warming climate.

A Perfect Storm: Heatwave, Demand Surge, and Grid Strain

The June 2026 heatwave, described by World Weather Attribution as the most severe ever recorded in the region, has placed Belgium’s electricity infrastructure under unprecedented strain. Belgium experienced its hottest week on record in late June, with temperatures soaring across Europe — Poland recorded an all-time national high of 40.5°C, and the heatwave has been linked to approximately 1,300 excess deaths across the continent, according to the BBC.

The extreme heat has directly impacted the grid. Jean Fassiaux, spokesperson for grid operator Elia, told RTBF that high-voltage lines expand and sag above 30°C, forcing the operator to reduce transport capacity by 10 to 15%. “Given the dilation of the lines, we decided to reduce transport by 10 to 15%,” Fassiaux explained. “We are limiting the flow to avoid saturating a line that is struggling due to the heat.”

Meanwhile, demand has surged. Brussels recorded an 11% increase in electricity consumption during the heatwave, driven largely by air conditioning use, according to Sibelga, the capital’s distribution grid operator. Elia reported a 10% overall demand increase across the country. “This limited production comes at a time when we have more and more demand, particularly with air conditioning,” Fassiaux noted.

The Nuclear Phase-Out Factor

Belgium’s growing reliance on imports is fundamentally linked to its long-running nuclear phase-out. The country once derived roughly half its electricity from seven nuclear reactors at Doel and Tihange. A 2003 law mandated complete shutdown by 2025, but the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began unraveling that policy.

Five of the seven reactors have now been shut down: Doel 3 (2022), Tihange 2 (2023), and Doel 1, Tihange 1, and Doel 2 (2025). Only Doel 4 and Tihange 3 remain operational, with a 10-year extension to 2035 under a joint venture between the state and ENGIE. These closures have transformed Belgium from a net electricity exporter into a net importer, exposing the country to volatile prices and neighboring grids.

In a dramatic policy reversal, Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced in April 2026 a landmark agreement with ENGIE to nationalize Belgium’s entire nuclear fleet, as reported by Europe Says. All dismantling activities at shuttered reactors were suspended immediately, with a target of 1 October 2026 for a binding deal. Restarting recently shut reactors — particularly Tihange 1 — is considered technically feasible at an estimated €350–500 million, potentially delivering power at around €65/MWh.

Broader Implications and the European Context

Belgium’s situation exemplifies a broader tension playing out across Europe. The European Green Deal, designed to reduce emissions and accelerate the clean energy transition, faces what Euronews has called a “crucial summer test” as heatwaves force a rethink of climate policy. Belgian Climate Minister Jean-Luc Crucke emphasized the need for both emissions reduction and adaptation: “We must, of course, reduce CO2 emissions, but we must adapt to climate change, because inaction has consequences on health, on the economy, on everyday life.”

The heatwave has exposed physical vulnerabilities in Belgium’s electricity infrastructure that may require significant investment to address. Beyond line dilation, extreme heat causes ground heaving that damages buried cables, and reduces the efficiency of thermal and nuclear plants when cooling water temperatures rise. A second heatwave was forecast for early July 2026, raising further concerns about grid resilience.

What to Watch For

Several key questions will shape Belgium’s energy trajectory in the coming months. The government faces a 1 October deadline for a binding nuclear nationalization deal with ENGIE, a complex negotiation that will test the administration’s capacity. The technical and economic feasibility of restarting Tihange 1 must be confirmed by regulators at the Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC). And as a second heatwave looms, the immediate resilience of Belgium’s grid — and its growing dependence on imports from neighboring countries — will remain under close scrutiny.

Belgium’s record import figures are more than a statistic. They represent a vivid illustration of the challenges facing European energy systems as they grapple with the intersecting pressures of decarbonization, energy security, and a changing climate.