Ossoff Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Collins in Georgia Senate Race
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has opened a commanding double-digit lead over Republican challenger Representative Mike Collins in Georgia’s 2026 Senate race, according to a new Fox News Poll released Wednesday. The survey, conducted June 23-27, shows Ossoff leading 56% to 43% among 1,002 registered Georgia voters, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The poll marks a significant shift from Ossoff’s razor-thin 2021 runoff victory over David Perdue and provides an early snapshot of a race that could help determine control of the Senate. Democrats currently hold a 53-47 minority, and Georgia is one of only two Democratic-held seats up in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024.
Context and Background
Georgia has emerged as a critical battleground state at the federal level. After decades of Republican dominance, Democrats won both of Georgia’s Senate seats in 2020-2021 and carried the state for Joe Biden in 2020. Trump won it back in 2024 by approximately two points, but Republicans still control all statewide executive offices and both chambers of the legislature.
Ossoff, first elected in January 2021 at age 33, faces Collins, a U.S. representative for Georgia’s 10th congressional district and owner of Collins Trucking. Collins secured the Republican nomination on June 16 by defeating former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in a runoff, buoyed by a last-minute endorsement from Trump. As Wikipedia notes, Collins defeated Dooley 55.5% to 44.5%.
Key Poll Findings
The poll, conducted by the bipartisan team of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), reveals stark demographic divides. Ossoff draws overwhelming support from Black voters (87%), voters under 30 (68%), independents (68%), and women under 45 (66%). Collins performs best among White evangelical Christians (79%), White men without a college degree (65%), and rural voters (55%).
Party loyalty strongly favors the incumbent: 96% of Democrats back Ossoff, while 89% of Republicans support Collins. However, a notable 44% of Collins’ supporters say their vote is primarily against Ossoff rather than for Collins, compared to just 17% of Ossoff supporters saying the same about their vote.
Nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans say they will back Ossoff, compared to just 4% of MAGA supporters, according to CBS News Atlanta.
The Issues Driving Voters
Inflation dominates voter concerns, with 40% citing it as the most important issue for their Senate vote. Healthcare ranks a distant second at 13%, followed by political divisions (11%), immigration (11%), and jobs and the economy (11%). Ossoff holds a significant +21 advantage among inflation-concerned voters, while Collins leads by +45 among those focused on immigration.
Favorability ratings also favor the incumbent: 58% of Georgians view Ossoff favorably, compared to 44% for Collins and 42% for Trump — the latter down five points from 2024. Voters are six points more likely to be concerned that Collins is too close to Trump (53%) than that Ossoff is too liberal (47%).
Analysis and Implications
Republican pollster Daron Shaw of Shaw & Company Research, who co-conducts the Fox News Poll, offered a candid assessment. “As Brooklyn Dodgers’ announcer Red Barber used to say, Ossoff is ‘sitting in the Catbird seat,’” Shaw said. “My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but Collins has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians.”
Collins faces significant headwinds. He underperforms compared to David Perdue’s 2021 numbers among key demographics and must consolidate a fractured Republican base while appealing to independents. The GOP primary exposed divisions between Trump-aligned and Kemp-aligned factions, with Governor Brian Kemp backing Dooley while Trump endorsed Collins late in the race.
Meanwhile, Ossoff holds a massive fundraising advantage, with $31.7 million cash on hand as of March 31 compared to Collins’ $2.1 million, as reported by the Georgia Public Broadcasting.
The gubernatorial race on the same ballot could also shape turnout. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson 52% to 47% in the same Fox News Poll, within the margin of error. Some ticket splitting is already evident: 11% of Ossoff supporters cross party lines to back Jackson for governor.
What to Watch For
The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with a potential runoff on December 1 if no candidate secures a majority. Several key questions will shape the race: Will Collins close the gap as he becomes better known to general election voters? How will Trump’s involvement — including promised campaign rallies — affect the dynamics? Can Collins improve his standing among independents and moderate Republicans?
For now, Ossoff holds a substantial early advantage. But as Shaw cautioned, the race is likely to tighten considerably before Election Day, making Georgia once again the center of the political universe.