Belgian Supermarket Inflation Turns Negative for First Time

For the first time since tracking began in November 2021, supermarket inflation in Belgium has turned negative. Consumer organization Test Achats reported on July 4 that the inflation rate on a basket of grocery goods fell to -0.41% in June 2026, meaning overall prices in Belgian supermarkets are now slightly lower than they were a year ago.

A Historic Milestone

The milestone comes after more than four years of rising food costs that strained household budgets across the country. According to RTBF, the decline occurred despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and rising fuel and gas prices.

Test Achats tracks prices across six major supermarket chains — Albert Heijn, Carrefour, Colruyt, Delhaize, Aldi, and Lidl — collecting more than 3,000 individual price points each month to calculate the inflation rate on a representative shopping basket.

The Trend Toward Deflation

The negative reading marks the culmination of a steady downward trend. In April 2026, supermarket inflation stood at 1.18%. It fell to 0.27% in May — the first time it had dipped below 1% since December 2021 — before turning negative in June.

As La Libre reported, Test Achats described the development as “good news for Belgian wallets.”

Winners and Losers at the Checkout

While the overall trend is positive, the picture varies significantly by product category.

Products that saw the largest price increases (June 2026 vs. June 2025):

Alcoholic drinks: +3%
Meat (overall): +2.5%, with lamb meat rising 14%
Cod: +10%
Turkey fillet and coffee pods: +9% each
Lemons: +8%
Canned tuna: +6%
Ground coffee: +5%

Products that saw the largest price decreases:

Vegetables (overall): -5%, with carrots down 9% and cauliflower down 6%
Fruits (overall): -3%, with seedless grapes falling 13% and mangoes down 10%
Frozen products: -3%
Fish section: -2%
Pet food: -1%
Potatoes: -10%, driven by an excellent harvest and oversupply

Broader Economic Context

While supermarket-specific inflation has turned negative, Belgium’s overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.40% in June 2026, down from 4.08% in May, according to Statbel. The health index — which excludes tobacco, alcohol, and motor fuels and is used for wage and benefit indexation — fell to 2.99%.

This means that while grocery prices have declined, other categories such as energy and services continue to push overall inflation higher, keeping it well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Cross-Border Price Gap

Test Achats also compared prices across borders, finding that a shopping basket in France is on average 10.7% cheaper than in Belgium. Cleaning products are 40% cheaper across the border, while fish and meat are 15.3% less expensive. According to the consumer organization, Belgians spent approximately €461 million in French supermarkets, making France the preferred cross-border shopping destination (65.4% of total cross-border supermarket spending).

What This Means for Consumers

For Belgian households, the negative inflation reading offers tangible relief at the checkout after years of double-digit food inflation. However, Test Achats cautions that the savings are modest and unevenly distributed across product categories. Meat, alcohol, and coffee continue to rise in price, and the overall cost of living remains elevated.

The key question now is whether this trend will continue. Favorable agricultural conditions — particularly strong harvests for potatoes and vegetables — have driven down fresh produce prices, but geopolitical risks and energy price volatility could reverse the trend in the second half of 2026.

What to Watch For

Economists and consumer advocates will be watching closely to see if Belgian retailers respond to the cross-border price gap with France by lowering prices further. The coming months will also reveal whether the negative inflation trend is a one-time occurrence driven by seasonal factors or the beginning of a sustained period of lower grocery prices.

As Test Achats noted, this is a historic first — but whether it becomes a lasting trend depends on factors ranging from harvest conditions to global energy markets.