Belgium Braces for New Heatwave After Record June Event
Belgium is bracing for another potential heatwave beginning the week of July 6, 2026, just days after a historic 12-day heatwave ended on June 29. The warning phase of the Flemish Heat Action Plan was reactivated on July 4 — only two days after being deactivated — as meteorologists predict temperatures climbing to 28°C by mid-week and potentially reaching 30°C or higher by the weekend, according to VRT NWS.
A Historic Heatwave’s Aftermath
The incoming warm period follows a devastating June heatwave that lasted from June 18 to June 29 — only the seventh time since 1975 that Belgium has experienced a heatwave of 12 or more consecutive days. The highest temperature recorded in Ukkel (Uccle) during that period was 35.5°C on June 26, with temperatures locally exceeding 40°C in eastern Belgium.
The human toll was severe. The Risk Management Group confirmed that 1,222 excess deaths were recorded during the 12-day period — a 39% overmortality rate. The peak came on June 27, when 572 deaths were registered in a single day. Of the excess deaths, 530 were people over 85, but 180 were under 65, as VRT NWS reported.
Political Fallout Over Emergency Services
The June heatwave also triggered a political dispute over the performance of Belgium’s 112 emergency number. Federal Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) criticized the service, claiming wait times reached up to 10 minutes during the critical weekend of June 27-28. “I think that 112 did not function well during the last weekend,” Vandenbroucke said.
Interior Minister Bernard Quintin (MR) defended the service, noting that 47% of calls were answered within 20 seconds and the average wait time was 61 seconds. However, Quintin acknowledged that call volumes tripled to nearly 19,300 on Sunday alone — more than three times the daily average of 6,000. “I don’t have a 3D printer to print emergency center staff,” Quintin responded when asked about staffing shortages.
Climate Change Amplifying Heat Risk
Climate scientists warn that such back-to-back heat events are becoming more likely. Researchers at VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) calculated that the annual probability of a 12-day heatwave in Belgium has increased nearly five-fold compared to the 1980s — from approximately 3% per year (once every 30 years) to 14% per year (once every seven years), as VITO reported.
VRT weather forecaster Sabine Hagedoren attributes the prolonged heat to climate disruption weakening the jet stream. “Due to global warming, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is smaller, causing the jet stream to weaken,” she explained. This causes weather systems to linger longer over the same region — a phenomenon known as a “heat dome.”
Looking ahead, VITO’s projections show the trend accelerating. Under the most optimistic climate scenario (SSP1-2.6), the probability of a 12-day heatwave stabilizes at about 26% by 2060 — roughly once every four years. Under the most pessimistic scenario (SSP3-7.0), that probability exceeds 67% by 2085, meaning such heatwaves could occur two out of every three years.
Public Health Preparations Underway
With temperatures forecast to rise above 25°C from the start of the week, the Flemish Department of Care has reactivated the warning phase of its Heat Action Plan. Climate Doctor Jules Vertriest urged the public to take precautions: “Drink enough, cool yourself and the house, and avoid heavy exertion during the hottest part of the day.”
Vertriest also emphasized looking out for vulnerable neighbors. “Look around your neighborhood for vulnerable or lonely people who may also have chronic conditions. Can they keep their head and home cool? Are they drinking enough water? Do they need anything?”
What to Watch For
Whether the incoming warm period will meet the official criteria for a heatwave — defined by the Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) as at least five consecutive days with maximum temperatures ≥25°C in Ukkel, of which at least three must be ≥30°C — remains uncertain. As Hagedoren noted, “It is currently impossible to predict how long it would last. What is fairly certain is that we are again heading for a longer period of warm weather.”
The coming days will test whether Belgium’s healthcare system, emergency services, and infrastructure can cope with a second extreme weather event so soon after the last — and whether the political debate over emergency service capacity will lead to concrete action.
As climate researcher Hendrik Wouters of VITO put it: “The heatwave we just experienced makes it clear once again that climate adaptation is not a problem of the future, but a task for today.”