China Targets 8 Trillion Yuan Recycling Industry by 2030

China has unveiled its most ambitious circular economy plan to date, targeting an 8 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) resource-recycling industry by 2030 as part of a broader strategy to strengthen resource security and accelerate the country’s green transition. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released the “15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development” on July 3, 2026, following State Council approval on June 30, setting a 60% increase from the 5 trillion yuan output achieved in 2025.

A Strategic Leap for Resource Security

The plan represents China’s most comprehensive framework yet for transitioning toward a circular economy, driven by mounting concerns over resource security and geopolitical tensions surrounding green supply chains. In an official Q&A accompanying the release, the NDRC stated that “the importance of resource security has become increasingly prominent, while the geopolitical dynamics surrounding green, low-carbon development have grown complex and severe.”

China’s commitment to circular economy development spans over two decades, with the concept first elevated to national strategy during the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-2010) and codified through the Circular Economy Promotion Law in 2009. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China established a comprehensive resource recycling industry system, achieving the 5 trillion yuan output target and improving major resource productivity by approximately 77% from 2012 levels.

Key Targets and Milestones

The 15th Five-Year Plan sets several quantifiable benchmarks for 2030. Beyond the headline 8 trillion yuan recycling industry target, the plan calls for a 16% improvement in major resource output rate — the ratio of GDP to consumption of raw materials such as fossil fuels, steel, and non-ferrous metals — compared to 2025 levels. The annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste is targeted to reach 4.5 billion tons, while the annual recycling volume of major renewable resources should hit 510 million tons.

According to Xinhua, the plan aims to further optimize a circular economy system covering production, consumption, recycling, and utilization by 2030. By 2035, China intends to establish a high-quality circular economy development system with resource utilization efficiency reaching globally leading levels.

The “New Three” Solid Waste Challenge

A distinctive feature of the plan is its focus on emerging waste streams from China’s clean energy boom — what Chinese officials call the “new three” solid wastes: waste power batteries from electric vehicles, decommissioned photovoltaic modules, and retired wind turbine blades. As of 2025-2026, China’s recycling capacity for waste photovoltaic modules stood at approximately 2 million tons annually, and for wind turbine blades at roughly 1 million tons. Some 148 qualified enterprises were engaged in comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries, with processing capacity reaching 2.5 million tons.

This focus reflects the scale of China’s clean energy deployment. As the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, solar installations, and wind power, the country faces a looming waste management challenge that requires systematic recycling infrastructure. The plan explicitly targets these streams to prevent a future environmental burden while recovering valuable materials.

Three Pillars of Innovation

The NDRC outlined three key innovations in the plan. First, a full-chain approach to resource security spanning production, consumption, recycling, and utilization — including expanding channels for overseas recycled raw materials. Second, targeted interventions for specific waste categories, addressing gaps in bulk solid waste, traditional “urban mines,” and the new three solid wastes. Third, industry upgrading to address structural issues including insufficient incentives for recycled material use, inadequate market mechanisms, low-level competition, and weak digital regulatory capacity.

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers

The plan’s emphasis on resource security reflects China’s strategic vulnerability to potential restrictions on critical mineral supplies amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States and Europe. By building domestic recycling capacity, Beijing aims to reduce dependence on imported ores and metals, particularly for materials essential to clean energy technologies, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.

As SCMP noted in its analysis, the blueprint says China intends to elevate its recycling industry to a world-class level by 2035, seeking to narrow the gap with regional peers such as Japan and South Korea by establishing a more comprehensive, granular recycling infrastructure.

International Trade Implications

The plan encourages the import and use of high-quality recycled raw materials from overseas, suggesting China will remain a significant participant in global recycling commodity markets. This has implications for international waste trade flows and recycling industries worldwide, as China’s expanded demand for recycled feedstocks could reshape global supply chains for scrap metals, plastics, and other materials.

Alignment with Carbon Goals

The circular economy plan directly supports China’s climate commitments, including its pledge to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Circular economy measures reduce emissions from raw material extraction and processing — sectors that account for a significant share of industrial carbon output. The NDRC emphasized that the circular economy is “a major part of China’s social and economic development strategy” and plays a key role in advancing the country’s carbon-peaking goal.

Outlook and Implementation Challenges

The 8 trillion yuan target implies an average annual growth rate of approximately 10% through 2030, consistent with the trajectory achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This suggests the target is ambitious yet grounded in demonstrated performance. However, several questions remain about implementation, including what specific policy incentives — tax breaks, subsidies, or mandates — will accompany the plan to drive investment, and how China will balance the import of overseas recycled materials with domestic recycling capacity.

As China embarks on this next phase of circular economy development, the world’s largest manufacturer and consumer of raw materials is positioning itself to turn waste management into a strategic economic asset. The success of this transition will have substantial implications not only for China’s environmental and resource security but for global commodity markets and international climate goals.

Reporting contributed by Xinhua, Caixin Global, and South China Morning Post.