China Targets 8 Trillion Yuan in Circular Economy Plan

China has officially released its “15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development,” setting an ambitious target of 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in resource recycling industry output by 2030, as the world’s second-largest economy moves to address mounting waste from its renewable energy and electric vehicle boom. The plan, approved by the State Council on June 30 and published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on July 3, covers the 2026–2030 period and represents China’s fourth consecutive national-level circular economy blueprint, according to CCTV News.

Context and Background

China’s circular economy policy framework has evolved over nearly two decades, beginning with the Circular Economy Promotion Law of 2009. The 15th Five-Year Plan arrives at a critical juncture: China has committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030, faces intensifying resource security concerns amid global supply chain tensions, and is entering a period of large-scale decommissioning of EV batteries, solar panels, and wind turbine equipment.

An NDRC official stated that developing the circular economy is “a major strategy for China’s economic and social development,” emphasizing that it is “the essential path to improving resource utilization efficiency.”

Key Targets and Milestones

The plan sets several binding targets for 2030:

• Resource recycling industry output value: 8 trillion yuan, up from approximately 5 trillion yuan in 2025
• Major resource productivity improvement: ~16% increase compared to 2025 levels
• Bulk solid waste annual comprehensive utilization: ~4.5 billion tons
• Major renewable resources annual recycling volume: 510 million tons, up from 410 million tons in 2025

By 2035, the plan envisions a “circular economy high-quality development system basically established,” with major resource utilization efficiency reaching internationally advanced levels.

Addressing the “New Three” Waste Challenge

A defining feature of the 15th Five-Year Plan is its focus on what Chinese policymakers call the “new three” (新三样) waste categories: waste power batteries from electric vehicles, waste photovoltaic equipment (solar panels), and waste wind power equipment (turbine blades). China is entering a period of large-scale decommissioning of these devices during the current plan period.

The NDRC Q&A session highlighted that the plan requires power generation enterprises to include the costs of decommissioning wind power and photovoltaic equipment recycling into power station construction and operation costs, and to hand over decommissioned equipment to qualified recycling enterprises for proper disposal.

Yao Xin (么新), Vice President of Tsinghua Suzhou Environmental Innovation Research Institute, explained that the plan calls for establishing a “digital ID card” management system for new energy vehicle power batteries, implementing full life-cycle flow monitoring, which provides “clear policy guidance for the sustainable development of the industry.”

Policy Innovations and Firsts

The plan introduces several groundbreaking measures, marking the first time China has:

1. Proposed cultivating and expanding circular economy service industries
2. Proposed optimizing circular economy industrial layout
3. Comprehensively proposed unblocking the entire resource recycling chain
4. Included waste from “new infrastructure” — computing facilities and communication base stations — into the recycling system

Digital transformation is a key theme. The plan calls for AI deep application in waste sorting and separation, a “digital map” for photovoltaic equipment lifecycle tracking, and digital technology application across all waste recovery fields.

Expert Analysis

Zhu Liyang (朱黎阳), President of the China Circular Economy Association, and Duanmu Xiangci (端木祥慈) wrote in an expert analysis that the “15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for China’s circular economy to transition from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leap.” They emphasized that the plan addresses key shortcomings including “重点行业资源产出率不高” (low resource productivity in key industries) and “重点品种废弃物回收渠道不畅” (poor recycling channels for key waste categories).

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The 8 trillion yuan target represents a 60% increase from 2025 levels, with the industry having maintained approximately 10% annual growth. The emphasis on resource security reflects concerns about global supply chain vulnerabilities, while provisions for importing high-quality overseas recycled raw materials signal a strategic shift toward reducing dependence on primary resource imports.

What’s Next

The NDRC has indicated it will strengthen coordination, refine task lists, and implement dynamic monitoring and evaluation of the plan. Key questions remain about enforcement across China’s diverse provincial governments, specific financial mechanisms to fund the ambitious targets, and how China’s circular economy standards will align with international frameworks such as the EU’s Digital Product Passport.

The plan positions China to lead in circular economy standards and certification globally, while its success will be critical to meeting the country’s 2030 carbon peak target.