Code Yellow Heat Warning for Belgium Through Wednesday

The Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (KMI) has issued a Code Yellow heat warning for the entire country except the coastal region, effective from Sunday July 5 through Wednesday July 8, 2026. Inland temperatures are expected to reach at least 25°C, with temperatures of 30°C or more forecast from Thursday onward, according to VRT NWS.

What Code Yellow Means

Belgium’s color-coded heat warning system uses Code Yellow to indicate conditions that may require protective measures for vulnerable groups. The KMI’s official heat warning table shows Code Yellow active for all provinces from July 5 through July 9, with the coastal region notably excluded from the warning.

The Intergewestelijke Cel voor het Leefmilieu (IRCEL) has activated the warning phase of the national ozone and heat plan for the second time this year, triggering heat action plans across all regions. A further escalation to the alarm phase remains possible if conditions worsen.

Context: A Summer of Extreme Heat

This new warning follows an unprecedented heat wave from June 18–29 that saw seven consecutive tropical days above 30°C. According to Sciensano, Belgium’s public health institute, that heat wave caused a 39% excess mortality rate—an estimated 1,222 additional deaths, as reported by VRT NWS. Of those, 530 were aged 85 and older, while 180 were under 65. The peak occurred on June 27, when 572 deaths were recorded in a single day.

June 2026 as a whole was 3.1°C warmer than the long-term average in Belgium, with exceptionally warm nights recording the highest average minimum temperature since 1991.

Growing Risk of Long Heat Waves

Climate scientists from VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) have calculated that the probability of a 12-day heat wave in Belgium is now nearly five times greater than in the 1980s. Such extreme events now occur once every seven years, as VRT NWS reported.

VRT weather forecaster Sabine Hagedoren noted that while the chance of a new heat wave is real, it is currently impossible to estimate how long it would last.

Political Debate Intensifies

The heat wave has sparked significant political debate. Opposition leaders have criticized the federal government’s response. Aimen Horch, chair of the Groen party, accused the government of inaction, saying: “The government simply didn’t address it, except for the tips ‘drink some water’ and ‘take care of each other.’ We know more heat waves are coming. Make an emergency plan now.”

PS party leader Paul Magnette was equally critical, stating: “Citizens have been left to their fate. This is about human lives.”

Meanwhile, a dispute has emerged between Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) and Interior Minister Bernard Quintin (MR) over the performance of the 112 emergency number, which saw wait times of up to 10 minutes during the peak of the previous heat wave. Vandenbroucke has proposed taking over the 1733 triage number from Interior. Quintin acknowledged the pressure, noting that on a peak Sunday, nearly 19,300 calls were received—more than three times the daily average of 6,000.

Broader European Heat Crisis

Belgium is not alone in facing extreme temperatures. Multiple European countries are experiencing simultaneous heat waves. France recorded its hottest June ever, with an average temperature of 22.7°C (3.8°C above normal, surpassing the 2003 record). Spain reported at least 1,028 heat-related deaths in June, its second hottest June on record. Portugal has declared Code Red with temperatures up to 43°C, and the Netherlands recorded approximately 480 excess deaths during the heat wave.

What to Watch For

The current Code Yellow warning expires at midnight on July 9, but temperatures of 30°C or more are expected from Thursday onward, raising the possibility of a new official heat wave. The Risk Management Group has been asked to formulate recommendations by early next week, and an Interministerial Conference on Health is scheduled to discuss strengthening Belgium’s heat preparedness strategy.

With the probability of long heat waves increasing fivefold compared to the 1980s, and the devastating mortality figures from June still fresh, the pressure on Belgian authorities to implement structural adaptation measures has never been greater.