Super Typhoon Bavi Barrels Toward Guam and Northern Marianas

Residents of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are hunkering down as Super Typhoon Bavi, a Category 5-equivalent storm with sustained winds of up to 160 mph (257 km/h), makes its final approach toward the US Pacific territories. The storm is forecast to make landfall early Monday morning, July 6, local time, bringing catastrophic winds, storm surge, and torrential rainfall, according to the BBC.

Context

Bavi has been classified as a super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), with winds exceeding 130 knots (150 mph). The JTWC predicts winds of 150 knots (173 mph) at landfall, with gusts reaching up to 180 knots (207 mph). The National Weather Service (NWS) considers super typhoons to have the equivalent destructive potential of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

This is the second super typhoon to threaten the region in 2026, following Super Typhoon Sinlaku in April, which killed 17 people and caused approximately $1.5 billion in damage. The approaching storm comes as communities are still recovering from that devastation.

Key Developments

As of Sunday afternoon, Bavi was located approximately 250 miles east of Guam, moving west-northwest at 8 mph, according to the Pacific Daily News. Maximum sustained winds measured 155 mph, slightly weaker than Saturday’s peak of 160-165 mph, but the system is expected to strengthen slightly to 160 mph by Monday.

Guam declared Condition of Readiness 1 (COR 1) at noon Sunday, the highest alert level, meaning residents must remain indoors amid expectations of heavy winds within 12-24 hours. The island has opened five evacuation centers in its schools with a maximum capacity of around 1,700, primarily intended for vulnerable people. One site had already reached maximum capacity by Sunday afternoon.

“I have every confidence that we are prepared, we just need to hunker down,” Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero said. “We are praying for everyone in the CNMI and the Marianas.”

NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Landon Aydlett warned that the storm remains extremely dangerous despite a slight weakening. “This is still a very destructive super typhoon,” he said. “It’s a little bit weaker than it was yesterday but you won’t feel much difference.”

The storm poses particular risks to the island of Rota, which may face a direct hit from the eye. NWS Meteorologist in Charge Brandon Aydlett cautioned residents: “This is not the end. Once the backside of those winds come back over the island, the wind will come up very quickly.”

Waves of up to 10.7 meters (35 feet) — the height of a 10-story building — are projected, creating extremely dangerous conditions at sea, according to CGTN. Up to 20 inches of rain is possible, leading to dangerous flash flooding and landslides in hilly or mountainous terrain, as reported by Weather.com.

For residents like Pinky Cubacub, a 55-year-old Guam restaurant owner, the storm brings economic anxiety. She told AFP that she had spent $500 on plywood to board up her eatery’s windows. “I cannot afford to lose so many days. It hurts,” she said. “Because I just started, whatever we’re making right now is just for rent, utilities, and my people, and supplies. I don’t even pay myself yet.”

Japanese tourist Miku Sakurai, 25, told AFP that her return flight to Tokyo had been cancelled. “We will stay in the hotel when the storm comes. I am scared,” she said.

Analysis

Bavi will be the 11th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to hit US territory in the past decade — one more than the total recorded in the prior 57 years, according to the BBC. This dramatic increase aligns with scientific consensus that climate change is intensifying tropical cyclones globally.

A strong El Niño event is expected to push more tropical storms into higher intensities. The world’s oceans experienced their hottest June on record in 2026, and warmer sea surface temperatures drive more moisture into the atmosphere, supercharging storms.

Unlike Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which crept toward the islands at just 3 mph and prolonged the destruction, NWS officials said Bavi is expected to speed up within the next 12 to 24 hours, potentially reducing the duration of impacts.

What’s Next

After passing the Marianas, Bavi may continue toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, or eastern China, potentially affecting millions more people later in the week. The full extent of damage and casualties will not be known until the storm passes and assessments can be conducted. Federal assistance will likely be deployed to the affected US territories, which are still recovering from Sinlaku’s devastation just three months ago.