China Targets 8 Trillion Yuan Circular Economy by 2030

China has unveiled its most ambitious circular economy plan to date, targeting a resource recycling industry output value of 8 trillion yuan (approximately $1.1 trillion) by 2030, as the country seeks to strengthen resource security and accelerate its green transformation. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released the “Circular Economy Development 15th Five-Year Plan” on July 3, 2026, following State Council approval on June 30, marking China’s fourth consecutive national-level five-year plan dedicated to circular economy development.

A Strategic Shift Toward Resource Security

The plan arrives at a critical juncture for China, which faces growing resource security challenges amid global supply chain uncertainties. According to an NDRC official Q&A document, the Plan’s highlights can be summarized as “three furthers”: further strengthening the circular economy’s support for resource security, further addressing shortcomings in the recycling of important renewable resources, and further accelerating the upgrading of the resource recycling industry.

“Developing the circular economy is a major strategy for China’s economic and social development,” the NDRC spokesperson stated, emphasizing that it is “the only way to improve resource utilization efficiency.”

Key Targets for 2030

The Plan sets clear, measurable goals for the end of the decade:

• Resource recycling industry output value to reach 8 trillion yuan, up from 5 trillion yuan in 2025
• Annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste to hit 4.5 billion tons
• Annual recycling volume of major renewable resources to reach 510 million tons
• Major resource output rate to increase by approximately 16% compared to 2025 levels

By 2035, the Plan envisions a circular economy high-quality development system being “basically established,” with resource efficiency reaching internationally advanced levels.

Tackling the “New Three” Waste Challenge

A major innovation in this Plan is its focus on waste from China’s rapidly growing clean energy sectors. As reported by CCTV via China Youth Daily, during the “15th Five-Year” period (2026-2030), China will enter a phase of large-scale “retirement” of “new three” equipment: power batteries from new energy vehicles, photovoltaic panels from solar installations, and wind turbine blades from decommissioned wind farms.

For the first time, the Plan incorporates “new infrastructure” waste — including computing facilities — into the recycling system. It requires power generation companies to include退役 (decommissioning) costs for wind and solar equipment in their construction and operation budgets, and mandates the construction of a full life-cycle recycling system for new energy vehicle power batteries.

Industrial Transformation and Economic Opportunity

The resource recycling industry already reached 5 trillion yuan in output value by 2025, growing at approximately 10% annually, according to the Shanghai Securities News. The target of 8 trillion yuan by 2030 represents substantial continued growth and reflects the government’s commitment to green development as an economic driver.

Zhu Liyang, President of the China Circular Economy Association, wrote in an expert analysis published by the NDRC that “the circular economy is a key engine driving the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development and achieving high-quality development.” He noted that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, “the strategic value, industrial value, and ecological value of the circular economy are becoming increasingly prominent.”

The Plan explicitly aims to address the “small, scattered, weak” nature of China’s recycling industry by cultivating large-scale, specialized backbone enterprises, improving technology and equipment, strengthening industry regulation, and promoting “manufacturing + service” integration.

First-of-Their-Kind Initiatives

The Plan introduces several groundbreaking measures:

1. Cultivating circular economy service industries — proposed for the first time
2. Optimizing circular economy industrial layout — also a first
3. Comprehensively unblocking resource recycling chains — a new comprehensive approach
4. Incorporating “new infrastructure” waste into the recycling system

These innovations signal a shift from viewing circular economy as purely an environmental policy to recognizing it as a strategic economic and resource security tool.

Resource Security in a Changing World

In the context of global geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, the Plan positions circular economy as a strategic instrument for reducing dependence on imported raw materials. By 2025, scrap steel already provided 27% of raw materials for steel production, and scrap nonferrous metals provided 30% for nonferrous metal production, according to NDRC data.

The Plan also promotes the import of high-quality overseas renewable raw materials, broadening import categories and optimizing management processes to supplement domestic resource supplies.

Supporting Climate Goals

The circular economy plan directly supports China’s “dual carbon” goals — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. By targeting 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste comprehensive utilization and improving resource productivity by 16%, the Plan aims to reduce resource consumption and carbon emissions across industrial supply chains.

What to Watch For

As the Plan moves toward implementation, several key questions remain: How will targets be enforced across different provinces and industries? What specific fiscal and financial instruments will support the 8 trillion yuan target? And will China seek to harmonize its circular economy standards with international frameworks?

The NDRC has stated it will strengthen coordination, refine task lists, clarify responsibilities, and enhance dynamic monitoring and evaluation of the Plan’s implementation. With the 2030 deadline approaching, China’s circular economy ambitions are set to reshape domestic industrial policy and potentially influence global commodity markets and recycling standards worldwide.