China Targets 8 Trillion Yuan for Circular Economy by 2030

China has set an ambitious target for its resource recycling industry to reach 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in annual output value by 2030, according to the Circular Economy Development 15th Five-Year Plan published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on July 3. The plan, approved by the State Council on June 30, represents China’s fourth consecutive national-level circular economy five-year development plan and marks a significant escalation in the country’s commitment to sustainable economic transformation.

Context and Background

The circular economy — an economic model centered on “reduce, reuse, recycle” — has become a strategic priority for Beijing as it faces tightening resource constraints and mounting pressure to meet its carbon peak target by 2030. According to the NDRC, developing the circular economy is “the essential path to improving resource utilization efficiency.”

China has made substantial progress during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025). Major resource productivity improved by approximately 77% compared to 2012 levels, the comprehensive utilization rate of bulk solid waste exceeded 60%, and the resource recycling industry reached 5 trillion yuan in output value, growing at roughly 10% annually.

Key Targets and Innovations

The new plan sets specific goals to be achieved by 2030: major resource productivity will increase by about 16% compared to 2025 levels, annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste will reach approximately 4.5 billion tons, and annual recycling volume of major renewable resources will hit 510 million tons.

As CCTV News reported, the plan introduces several first-of-their-kind initiatives. These include proposals to cultivate and expand circular economy service industries, optimize the industrial layout of circular economy operations, comprehensively unblock the resource recycling chain, and — notably — incorporate waste from “new infrastructure” such as computing facilities into the recycling system for the first time.

Addressing the “New Three” Waste Challenge

A central feature of the plan is its focus on recycling waste from China’s booming renewable energy sector. The “new three” (新三样) types of solid waste — waste power batteries, waste photovoltaic modules, and wind turbine blades — are specifically addressed. The 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to see large-scale decommissioning of these renewable energy assets, creating both environmental challenges and economic opportunities.

The plan requires power generation companies to include the costs of退役 (decommissioning) wind and photovoltaic equipment in their construction and operation expenses, and mandates that end-of-life equipment be handled by qualified recycling enterprises. It also calls for building a comprehensive lifecycle recycling system for new energy vehicle batteries.

Expert Perspectives

Zhu Liyang, President of the China Circular Economy Association, described the 15th Five-Year Plan period as “a critical time for China’s circular economy to leap from quantitative accumulation to qualitative transformation,” urging all sectors of society to “work together with shared purpose and take responsibility.”

Liu Cheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in Guangming Daily that “facing the dual challenges of tightening resource constraints and carbon emission pressures both domestically and internationally, the circular economy is no longer an ‘optional question’ for industrial development, but a ‘required question’ concerning green transformation and resource security.”

Broader Implications

The 8 trillion yuan target represents a 60% increase from the current industry value of 5 trillion yuan, implying sustained growth of approximately 10% annually through 2030. According to the China Circular Economy Association, the circular economy currently contributes roughly 30% to China’s carbon emission reduction efforts, a figure expected to rise to 35% by 2030.

The plan aligns with China’s broader “dual circulation” development strategy emphasizing domestic economic resilience. By increasing domestic recycling capacity, China reduces its vulnerability to global commodity price volatility and supply chain disruptions. The policy ecosystem supporting this transition has been strengthened by the recently passed Ecological Environment Code, which includes a dedicated “Circular Economy” chapter that upgrades producer responsibility from voluntary guidelines to mandatory requirements.

What to Watch For

Implementation will be key. China’s vast and diverse regional economies may vary significantly in their ability to execute the plan’s provisions. The recycling industry currently faces challenges including low profitability, technological bottlenecks, and fragmented regulation. Specific financial incentives — including tax breaks, subsidies, and green bond frameworks — are expected to accompany implementation at the provincial level.

As the plan rolls out, attention will focus on how China coordinates circular economy standards with international partners and which specific technologies receive priority research and development funding. The 15th Five-Year Plan period will determine whether China can transform its recycling industry from a “small, scattered, weak” sector into a large-scale, professional, and high-value economic engine.