China Tests Submarine-Launched ICBM into Pacific in Strategic Milestone

China has successfully conducted its first-ever test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking a historic milestone in the country’s strategic deterrent capabilities. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) confirmed that a strategic nuclear submarine launched a JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a training simulated warhead on July 6 at midday Beijing time, with the missile accurately striking its predetermined target zone in international waters.

Historic Test Marks New Era for Sea-Based Deterrence

The test, reported by Xinhua News Agency and published by the Ministry of National Defense, represents only the third time China has publicly conducted an ICBM test into the Pacific in over four decades. It follows the September 2024 DF-31AG test by the PLA Rocket Force — the first such launch since 1980 — and now extends China’s reach to the sea-based leg of its nuclear triad.

Chinese authorities stated that the launch was a routine annual military training exercise, notified to relevant countries in advance, and compliant with international law and practice. “This missile test launch is a routine arrangement of China’s annual military training, has been notified to relevant countries in advance, complies with international law and international practice, and does not target any specific country or target,” the Ministry of National Defense said in its official statement.

The JL-3: A Third-Generation Strategic Weapon

Analysts identified the missile as the JL-3 (Julang-3, or “Giant Wave-3”), China’s latest-generation submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. First publicly unveiled at the September 3, 2025 military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance against Japan, the JL-3 has an estimated range of approximately 12,000 kilometers and can carry multiple independently targetable warheads, including nuclear payloads.

Military commentator Song Zhongping told Lianhe Zaobao that “this should be the first full-range test launch of the JL-3. It is the sea-based nuclear force within China’s land-sea-air ‘triad’ strategic nuclear capability, and also the backbone of second-strike nuclear counterattack capability.”

The JL-3 joins the JL-1 and JL-2 in China’s evolving SLBM family. The JL-2 was publicly displayed at the 2019 National Day military parade, where it was described as “China’s second-generation submarine-launched long-range ballistic missile, bearing the heavy responsibility of supporting the nation’s sea-based nuclear deterrence.”

Strategic Significance: A Credible Second-Strike Capability

Military expert Zhang Junshe, commenting to The Paper, emphasized the unique advantages of sea-based nuclear forces. “Compared to land-based and air-based platforms, strategic nuclear submarines have relatively high underwater concealment, strong survivability, and long underwater patrol duration, enabling them to maintain strong strategic deterrence capabilities,” he said.

This survivability is the cornerstone of a credible second-strike capability — the ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons even after absorbing a first strike. Unlike fixed land-based ICBM silos, which are vulnerable to preemptive attack, ballistic missile submarines can remain undetected for months at a time, making it virtually impossible for an adversary to eliminate China’s nuclear retaliatory capability in a single strike.

Timing and Geopolitical Context

The test occurred against a backdrop of heightened military competition in the Western Pacific. In late June 2026, the United States and its allies conducted multiple joint exercises, including the US-Japan “Firm Dragon” exercise, “Valiant Shield 2026” involving the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, and the US-led RIMPAC exercises involving 31 nations.

Professor Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, told Lianhe Zaobao that “this test launch is a response to the ongoing RIMPAC exercises, intended to demonstrate China’s ability to safeguard its own security interests to the United States and extra-regional countries intervening in South China Sea affairs.”

Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, added that through the JL-3 test, “China demonstrates its capability to attack the US mainland, as well as its nuclear deterrence against the United States.” Shen also noted that the test serves to demonstrate that the PLA’s core decision-making and combat capabilities remain intact despite the ongoing high-profile anti-corruption campaign within the military.

International Reactions

The launch drew swift international reactions. The United States confirmed it had monitored the launch. US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said, according to Lianhe Zaobao, that “at a time when the United States is working harder than ever to prevent nuclear proliferation, China is doing the exact opposite. Beijing’s rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup has caused great concern in the region and around the world.”

Australia, Japan, and New Zealand all expressed concern. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed receipt of notification but criticized the test as destabilizing, occurring against the backdrop of China’s rapid military expansion lacking transparency. The Japanese government, after receiving notification, “strongly urged” China to reconsider the plan, expressing “serious concern over China’s increasingly frequent military activities.” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters stated that “this seems to be becoming a recurring pattern for China.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning addressed the test at a regular press conference on July 6, stating that “this is a routine military training activity, does not target any specific country or target, and was notified to relevant countries in advance, complying with international law and international practice.” She added that “the relevant launch activities have always maintained safe, standardized, and professional operations, and we hope relevant countries will not over-interpret.”

Analysis: Completing the Nuclear Triad

The JL-3 test represents the maturation of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and the completion of its nuclear triad — the ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea. The September 2025 military parade featured all three legs for the first time: the Jinglei-1 air-launched missile, the JL-3 SLBM, and the DF-61 and DF-31 land-based ICBMs.

Lee Liang Fook, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that “the test launch once again proves that the PLA has the capability to conduct military operations beyond the first island chain, which is also the area where the US, Japan, Australia, the Philippines and other countries have been continuously strengthening military exercises in recent years.”

What to Watch For

The test raises several important questions for the months ahead. Will China conduct additional SLBM tests as part of routine training? How will this affect US-China arms control discussions, which the US has been pushing for? And what specific countermeasures might US and allied forces develop in response to China’s growing sea-based deterrent?

What is clear is that China has crossed a significant threshold. With a credible sea-based second-strike capability, the strategic calculus in the Indo-Pacific has fundamentally shifted — and the era of China’s nuclear triad has arrived.