Belgium Heat Wave: Code Yellow Extended, Fire Risk Rises

Belgium is bracing for a prolonged heat wave as the Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) extends its code yellow warning through the night of Saturday to Sunday, July 11-12, covering the entire country. With temperatures forecast to reach 33°C and remain above 30°C for nearly a week, authorities are on high alert for both public health risks and wildfires, just weeks after a deadly June heat wave claimed more than 1,200 excess lives.

Context: A Second Heat Wave in Weeks

The new heat wave arrives as Belgium is still reckoning with the impact of the June 18-29 heat wave, which caused an unprecedented 39% excess mortality — 1,222 additional deaths, according to preliminary figures from the Sciensano public health institute. The peak occurred on June 27, when 572 deaths were recorded in a single day. Of those who died, 530 were aged 85 or older, and 180 were under 65, as VRT NWS reported.

Temperatures this week are expected to climb steadily: up to 31°C on Wednesday, 33°C on Thursday, and 32°C on Friday, with the weekend remaining above 30°C. Pascal Mormal, a meteorologist at the Royal Meteorological Institute, told La Libre Belgique that while temperatures are not extreme, “it is especially the duration of the episode that seems worrying.” Forecasts suggest the heat could persist until Tuesday, July 14.

Fire Risk Prompts Orange Vigilance

The prolonged dry and hot conditions have pushed the Vesdre-Hoëgne-Plateau emergency zone — covering Spa, Theux, Verviers, and Welkenraedt — into orange vigilance for fire risk, a status it has maintained for the past ten days. Frédéric Vaessen, Operational Director of the zone, told RTBF that the heightened alert has allowed the service to reinforce its firefighting capacity with an additional 8,000-liter water tank and an extra officer. “In a standard fire engine departure, we have 2,500 liters of water. So we are really increasing the extinguishing capacity,” Vaessen explained. The zone does not rule out escalating to red vigilance if dry conditions and wind persist.

Belgium Unprepared for Growing Wildfire Threat

A deeper concern, however, is whether Belgium is ready for a future with more frequent and intense wildfires. According to an analysis by the Climate Change Risk Analysis Centre (CERAC), vegetation fires could significantly increase in Belgium over the next 15-20 years due to climate change, becoming more intense and more likely to start simultaneously in multiple locations. As La Libre Belgique reported, experts warn that Belgium’s population is more threatened by wildfires than populations in other countries, yet the country is not adequately prepared.

The warning comes as massive wildfires rage across southern France, where more than 2,000 hectares have burned and over 10,000 residents have been evacuated in the Pyrénées-Orientales region — a stark reminder of the threat that could increasingly face Belgium.

Public Health Concerns and Political Fallout

The Federal Public Service Health has activated the warning phase of the National Ozone and Heat Plan, and the Risk Management Group may escalate to the alarm phase if critical temperature and ozone thresholds are reached. The previous heat wave exposed significant vulnerabilities: the 112 emergency number experienced wait times of up to 10 minutes during the crisis, and Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke has proposed transferring the 1733 triage number from Interior to Health to address the issue.

Political criticism has been sharp. Aimen Horch, Chair of the Groen party, called for a comprehensive national heat plan, telling VRT NWS: “The government simply did not address it, except for the tips ‘drink some water’ and ‘take care of each other.’ We know more heat waves are coming. Make an emergency plan now.”

A European-Wide Heat Crisis

Belgium is far from alone in suffering under extreme temperatures. The heat wave is part of a broader European phenomenon: France recorded its hottest June ever (average 22.7°C, 3.8°C above normal), Spain has declared code red in three regions with temperatures up to 42°C, Portugal is under code red with temperatures reaching 43°C, and the Netherlands recorded approximately 480 excess deaths during the previous heat wave. Austria experienced its longest June heat wave on record.

What to Watch For

As the heat wave intensifies, several key questions remain: Will the KMI escalate to code orange or red as temperatures approach 33°C? What specific recommendations will the Risk Management Group produce following its evaluation of the June heat wave response? And will the political pressure lead to meaningful reforms in Belgium’s heat action plans and wildfire preparedness?

For now, authorities urge the public to remain vigilant, stay hydrated, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members. With temperatures expected to remain above 30°C for the foreseeable future, the coming days will test both Belgium’s infrastructure and its capacity to adapt to a rapidly warming climate.