US and Iran Must Negotiate Again, Middle East Expert Says

Despite the dramatic collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire and the fiercest exchange of military fire since the conflict began, both nations have no viable alternative but to return to the negotiating table, according to Middle East expert Leo Kwarten. His analysis comes as global oil prices surge and the region teeters on the edge of renewed full-scale war.

A Fragile Ceasefire Shattered

The ceasefire, formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 14, 2026, has effectively collapsed after just weeks of fragile calm. The trigger came on July 7, when Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz — the Marshallese-flagged Al Rekayyat carrying Qatari liquid gas, the Saudi-flagged Wedyan, and the Liberian-flagged Cyprus Prosperity.

The United States responded swiftly, launching strikes on more than 80 targets across Iran, including air defense systems, command and control networks, radar sites, and anti-ship missile capabilities, according to CNBC. President Donald Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, declared the ceasefire “over” and ordered additional strikes, threatening to “bomb everything” on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal.

Iran retaliated by attacking US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming 85 facilities were targeted. Air raid sirens sounded three times in Bahrain and twice in Kuwait, as The Guardian reported.

Oil Markets in Turmoil

The escalation sent shockwaves through global energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 4.4% to close at $73.52 per barrel, while Brent crude jumped 5.2% to settle at $78.02 per barrel. The United Nations warned that a return to full-scale hostilities would have “catastrophic consequences” for the global economy, with some 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the waterway.

Why Negotiations Are Inevitable

Leo Kwarten, a Dutch Arabist and lecturer at the Clingendael Institute who was interviewed on Radio 1’s “De Ochtend,” argues that both sides are structurally compelled to negotiate. His reasoning, as reported by VRT NWS, rests on three pillars.

First, the military situation is a stalemate. The United States cannot achieve a decisive victory without a costly ground invasion, which Trump has ruled out. Iran’s military infrastructure is devastated — most of its command centers, air force, navy, and missile factories have been destroyed — but the regime survives.

Second, both sides face acute economic pressures. Iran needs sanctions relief to revive its collapsed economy, which has been battered by months of war and international isolation. The United States needs stability in oil markets to control domestic fuel prices, a politically sensitive issue for any administration.

“Americans cannot win militarily,” Kwarten said. “Iran can cause trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, but it also wants to get rid of the oil sanctions. They need money for the country’s economy, which is in bad shape.”

Third, the June 14 MoU, while now in tatters, established a framework that neither side has fully abandoned. Kwarten noted that the agreement was “very vague, precisely because they only agreed when things were formulated vaguely” — a weakness that allowed both sides to claim violations but also leaves room for renewed dialogue.

Obstacles on the Path to Peace

Despite the structural incentives for negotiation, significant hurdles remain. Israel, which was not involved in the earlier talks, continues to seek confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon, complicating any broader settlement. Iran’s IRGC, which functions as the regime’s private army, has little interest in a deal that would diminish its power.

The trust deficit is also profound. Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric — calling Iranian leaders “liars,” “cheaters,” and “sick people” — combined with the US bombing of civilian infrastructure, has deepened mutual suspicion. Kwarten specifically highlighted the US bombing of a railway line between Tehran and Mashhad, a critical route for mourners traveling to the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose assassination in March 2026 sparked the original conflict.

“Today that railway line is very important for the funeral of the Supreme Leader in Mashhad,” Kwarten said. “Many believers want to go there by train. That the Americans are now bombing that connection is a big step.”

What to Watch For

Kwarten believes that after the current round of fighting subsides, both sides will return to the table. Qatar, despite the attack on one of its tankers, may continue to serve as a mediator, while Pakistan has also been involved in facilitating talks. The key question is whether the pragmatic logic of mutual necessity can overcome the momentum of escalation.

“I think that after this round of fighting, it will calm down again and they will go to the negotiating table,” Kwarten predicted. The coming days will test whether that prediction holds — and whether the path back to diplomacy can be found before the conflict draws in the entire region.