Belgium’s Unemployment Reform: Why Older Workers Bear the Brunt
As the fourth wave of Belgium’s landmark unemployment reform took effect on July 1, 2026, a troubling pattern has emerged: older workers are being hit disproportionately hard — and policymakers admit they do not fully understand why.
Nearly 43,000 people lost their unemployment benefits on July 1, bringing the total number of excludees across the first four waves to approximately 97,000, according to La Libre Belgique. But a new analysis by Solidaris, the socialist mutual insurance federation, reveals that more than 33% of those excluded in the fourth wave are over 55 years old — a finding that has caught experts off guard.
A Historic Shift in Belgian Social Policy
The reform, enacted by Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s “Arizona” coalition government, represents a fundamental transformation of Belgium’s social safety net. For decades, Belgium was one of the few European countries with no time limit on unemployment benefits. Under the new rules, benefits are capped at a maximum of two years.
The law was adopted by the Chamber on July 18, 2025, and published in the Belgian Official Gazette on July 29, 2025, according to the ONEM, the national employment office. The transition is unfolding in six waves through July 2027, with an estimated 171,000 to 184,000 people expected to lose their benefits.
The Fourth Wave Mystery
What makes the fourth wave particularly puzzling is that it targets people who have been unemployed for up to two years — those considered “least distant from employment.” Yet, as La Libre Belgique reported on July 10, the high concentration of older workers in this wave was not anticipated. The newspaper’s headline captured the bewilderment: “Why are there so many older unemployed in the 4th wave of exclusions? We don’t know.”
Several factors may explain the trend. Older workers who lose their jobs often face age discrimination, skill obsolescence, and health challenges that make re-employment difficult. The exemption for those over 55 requires 30 years of work history — a threshold that many older workers, particularly women with interrupted careers, may not meet. Additionally, part-time work patterns common among older employees may affect benefit calculations.
A Disproportionate Human Toll
The Solidaris analysis, published on July 10, paints a stark picture of who is being affected. According to the Solidaris press release, one in six excluded persons heads a single-parent family — 9,225 families, 85% of which are led by single mothers. In total, 72,229 children are directly affected by the loss of household income.
“Behind these numbers, there are thousands of parents who risk losing their only income and tens of thousands of children whose living conditions will be directly affected,” said Jean-Pascal Labille, Secretary General of Solidaris. “An employment reform cannot ignore its social and health consequences.”
The health impact is equally concerning. Among those excluded in the first wave, 28% suffer from cardiovascular problems, compared to just 12% in the general working population. Excluded individuals are generally older and in poorer health, raising questions about their ability to re-enter the workforce.
Geographic and Demographic Disparities
The reform’s impact is not evenly distributed across Belgium. According to VRT NWS, 46.3% of excludees live in Wallonia, 31.1% in Flanders, and 22.1% in Brussels. Nearly half (47.6%) are considered low-skilled. Major cities are hit hardest: Antwerp (10,123 people), Brussels City (7,825), and Liège (7,791).
The CPAS Pressure Point
As unemployment benefits end, many excludees are turning to local Public Social Action Centers (CPAS) for last-resort assistance. The government allocated €400 million in additional compensation for CPAS, but organizations warn this is insufficient. In Brussels alone, an estimated 27,000 of 45,000 excludees may seek the Revenu d’Intégration Sociale (RIS) — a means-tested benefit that is significantly lower than unemployment payments. For a single person, the RIS amounts to €1,314.20 per month, compared to unemployment benefits ranging from €1,437.54 to €2,231.06, as RTBF reported.
Analysis: Unintended Consequences or Design Flaw?
The concentration of older workers in the fourth wave raises fundamental questions about the reform’s design. The government’s projections may not have fully accounted for the career patterns, health status, and caregiving responsibilities that make older unemployed workers particularly vulnerable.
“Older people in poor health already face much greater difficulties than others in finding employment,” Labille warned. “In a labor market where opportunities remain limited, there is a major risk that it will be precisely these groups, already among the most vulnerable, who pay the price of this reform.”
The employment rate for 55-64 year olds in Belgium stands at just 60.7%, far below the 76.4% rate for 20-54 year olds, according to Solidaris data. This suggests that even before the reform, older workers faced significant barriers to re-employment.
What’s Next
With waves 5 and 6 still to come through July 2027, the full impact of the reform remains to be seen. The government aims to increase Belgium’s employment rate to 80% by 2029, but the early evidence suggests that vulnerable populations — older workers, single mothers, and those with health problems — are bearing the heaviest burden.
Policymakers are being urged to investigate why older workers are so disproportionately represented in the fourth wave and to consider targeted support measures. The 30-year work history exemption for those over 55 is set to rise to 35 years by 2030, potentially creating even greater hardship for future cohorts of older workers.
As Belgium navigates this historic shift in its social model, the question posed by La Libre Belgique remains unanswered: Why are older workers being hit so hard? Finding the answer may be essential to ensuring the reform achieves its goals without leaving a generation behind.