Israel Expands Gaza Control to 70% Despite Ceasefire

Nine months after the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israeli forces have expanded their control from roughly 50% to nearly 70% of the Gaza Strip, according to NPR. The expansion has occurred through a combination of shifting demarcation lines, newly designated restricted zones, and the construction of permanent military infrastructure — all while the ceasefire agreement envisioned phased Israeli withdrawals.

The Ceasefire That Didn’t Stop the Advance

The Gaza peace plan, brokered by President Donald Trump, came into effect on October 10, 2025. It envisioned three phases: an initial Israeli withdrawal to a temporary “Yellow Line,” further withdrawal to a “Red Line,” and ultimately full withdrawal. Only Phase 1 has been implemented. Phase 2 negotiations — which would involve Hamas disarmament and further Israeli pullbacks — remain stalled.

According to ABC News (Australia), the Israel Defense Forces have confirmed operational control of approximately 60% of Gaza, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly directed the military to reach 70%. By late June, defense officials reported that the IDF had achieved that target, with the Jerusalem Post noting that operational control could expand further in the coming months.

The Yellow Line: From Temporary to Permanent

The Yellow Line — a 45-kilometer demarcation dividing Israeli-controlled eastern Gaza from Hamas-controlled western areas — was originally intended as a temporary measure. It is marked in places by yellow-painted concrete blocks and earth berms. But residents and researchers say these markers have been moved deeper into Gaza without warning.

Mustafa Taym, 46, from the Jabalia refugee camp, described the experience to ABC News: “The Yellow Line changes overnight. You come the next day, you see the line moved forward a metre, then it goes back. It’s like a game of cat and mouse; they are playing chess with you, turn by turn.”

The Guardian reported that by December 2025, Israel had taken 58% of the strip, with the line continuing to creep westward. Forensic Architecture, a research group at the University of London, documented via satellite imagery that concrete blocks had been placed hundreds of meters beyond the originally agreed boundary.

The Orange Zone: An Unmarked Buffer

In March 2026, Israel designated a new “orange zone” running north-south, adding approximately 10-11% more territory under restricted access. Unlike the Yellow Line, the orange zone is unmarked on the ground — it exists only on maps distributed to aid organizations. Its distance from the Yellow Line varies from 200 to 500 meters, according to the Israeli army unit deployed there.

Aid groups require prior notification to enter the orange zone. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 10 UN facilities, including emergency shelters for displaced people, have fallen on the “wrong side” of the orange line. Aid operations in northern Gaza’s orange zone have been suspended since March.

Human Cost of the Expanding Lines

The human toll has been severe. Between October 2025 and early April 2026, the UN verified the killing of 196 Palestinians near areas where Israeli forces are deployed, including 18 women and 43 children. Overall, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the ceasefire began, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

Residents of al-Shujaiya — a neighborhood in eastern Gaza City that once housed over 100,000 people — now number fewer than 50 families. “After sunset we put our hand on our heart and just pray,” Abu Ahmed Humeid told NPR. “No one dares go outside.”

Saeed al-Hattab, another resident, said: “You get scared to catch a bullet just walking or a missile and be blown apart. It’s terrifying.”

The IDF has stated that it makes “significant efforts, whenever operationally feasible, to provide advance warnings to the civilian population.” It has also said its forces act in self-defense against perceived threats. But the UN Human Rights Commissioner, Volker Türk, has stated that “targeting civilians not taking direct part in hostilities is a war crime, regardless of their proximity to deployment lines.”

Military Entrenchment

Israel has been building permanent infrastructure along the Yellow Line. According to The Guardian, the military has constructed 32 concrete outposts — seven of them new since early 2026 — along with over 10 miles of earth berms. Roads are being paved, positions reinforced, and regular and reserve troops deployed.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has referred to the Yellow Line as a “new border line,” while Netanyahu told an audience in May: “First, 70%. Let’s go for that. We’re hitting them from every direction.”

Stalled Diplomacy and What Comes Next

Phase 2 negotiations remain frozen over disagreements on Hamas disarmament. Hamas has offered to hand over authority to a U.S.-backed administration, according to The Guardian (July 6, 2026), but no agreement has been reached.

Nickolay Mladenov, the Trump-appointed High Representative for Gaza, warned the UN Security Council in May that “the risk is that the deteriorating status quo becomes permanent: a divided Gaza; Hamas holding military and administrative control over two million people across less than half the territory.”

“Those people are likely to remain trapped in the rubble, dependent on aid, with no meaningful reconstruction,” Mladenov said. “No security for Israel and no viable pathway to Palestinian self-determination.”

With the U.S. focus reportedly shifting toward Iran and Lebanon, and with Israel entrenching its military presence, the prospects for a negotiated resolution appear increasingly distant. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate as over two million Palestinians are compressed into an ever-shrinking area of the strip, raising urgent questions about the durability of the ceasefire and the future of Palestinian self-governance.