Typhoon Bavi to Make Landfall July 12, Bringing Heavy Rain

Typhoon Bavi, the ninth named storm of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season, is forecast to make landfall in the early hours of July 12 between Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, and Fuding, Fujian Province along China’s southeastern coast. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has issued its first Red Rainstorm Warning of 2026 as the storm threatens to bring catastrophic rainfall across vast swaths of central and eastern China, according to Xinhua News Agency.

Storm Characteristics and Trajectory

Bavi formed on July 2 in the far western Pacific Ocean and rapidly intensified to Super Typhoon status by July 4, reaching Category 5-equivalent strength with maximum sustained winds of 155 knots. The storm maintained super typhoon intensity for over 135 hours—an exceptionally long-lived duration—before weakening due to dry air entrainment. As of July 11, Bavi has re-intensified to severe typhoon status (14级, approximately 150 km/h) and is moving northwest at 30–35 km/h toward the Chinese coast, as documented by Baidu Baike.

CMA Chief Forecaster Xiang Chunyi described Bavi as “large, powerful, and energy-rich,” noting that its circulation diameter exceeds 1,200 km, covering an area of nearly 940,000 square kilometers—roughly equivalent to nine Zhejiang provinces in land area.

Unprecedented Warning Levels

On July 11, Chinese authorities escalated warnings to their highest levels across multiple categories. The CMA issued a Red Rainstorm Warning at 10:00 a.m., the first of its kind in 2026, alongside an Orange Typhoon Warning and a Yellow Severe Convective Weather Warning. The Ministry of Natural Resources and CMA jointly issued a Red Geological Disaster Risk Warning, while the Ministry of Water Resources issued a Red Flash Flood Warning. The National Marine Forecasting Station also issued a Red Sea Wave Warning, as reported by Guangming Daily.

Affected Areas and Rainfall Projections

The storm is expected to bring extreme precipitation across a vast area from July 11 to 13. Taiwan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and Northeast China are all bracing for heavy rainfall. Eastern Zhejiang, northeastern Fujian, and north-central Taiwan face the most extreme totals of 250–800 mm. The Beijing area is also under threat, with northeastern Beijing and northeastern Hebei facing extremely heavy rainfall of 250–280 mm, according to CCTV News.

Meteorologists have warned of possible tornadoes in parts of Liaoning, Hebei, and Zhejiang, as well as severe convective weather including thunderstorms and hail.

Government Emergency Response

The Chinese government has mounted a multi-layered emergency response. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing chaired a special meeting of the National Flood Control Headquarters in Nanning on July 10, stating that authorities must “always put people’s lives and property safety first, act ahead of the curve, fight proactively, and win the tough battle against Typhoon Bavi.”

The National Flood Control Headquarters escalated its response from Level 4 to Level 3, then to Level 2 for Zhejiang and Fujian, while activating Level 4 responses for Hebei and Liaoning. Zhejiang Province raised its emergency response to Level 1—the highest possible—at 11:00 a.m. on July 11, as detailed by The Paper.

Provincial Preparedness

In Zhejiang, authorities have taken extensive precautionary measures. Wenzhou waived parking fines during the typhoon period and opened seven parking structures to the public free of charge. All A-level scenic spots were closed as of July 9, and multiple bus routes were suspended, including the Water Bus Line 1 and 23 mountain routes.

In Taizhou’s Wenling area, 2,044 people had been evacuated as of July 9, with two coastal scenic spots and three attractions closed. Ferry services in Shitang Town were suspended, with emergency boats placed on 24-hour standby.

Fujian’s Ningde region deployed 1,287 cadres and evacuated 149 fishermen from 11 vessels. The region suspended 21 coastal passenger ferry routes and 550 road bus routes, while closing 44 of 90 A-level scenic spots. Equipment preparations include 52 assault boats, 93 rubber boats, 17,000 life jackets, and 477,000 sandbags, with 1,498 rescue teams on standby.

Analysis and Broader Implications

Meteorologists have compared Bavi to several historically significant typhoons, including 2019’s Typhoon Lekima, which caused extreme rainfall of up to 600 mm after landing in Zhejiang, and 1996’s Typhoon Herb, which followed a similar track and impact pattern.

The storm’s exceptional intensity and eastward formation are linked to developing El Niño conditions, which provided Bavi with extended time over warm Pacific waters—sea surface temperatures along its path reached approximately 30°C. This aligns with scientific projections of more intense tropical cyclones under warming climate conditions.

Bavi is the third super typhoon of the 2026 Pacific season, following Typhoons Sonamu and Meari. Its arrival complicates emergency management efforts, as the earlier Typhoon Maysak had already caused severe flooding in Guangxi, with the National Flood Control Headquarters maintaining a Level 2 response there.

What to Watch For

As Bavi approaches landfall, several key questions remain: Will the storm’s actual landfall location match forecasts, or will wobbles in its path change the impact zone? How will the simultaneous management of Typhoon Maysak’s aftermath in Guangxi affect resource allocation? And what will be the total economic damage once the storm passes through some of China’s most economically vital provinces?

Authorities urge residents in affected areas to remain vigilant, follow evacuation orders, and prepare for potential disruptions to transportation, power, and water services as the storm makes its way inland.