Experts Say Israel Holds the Key to Ending the Iran-US War
As the conflict between the United States and Iran escalates into its fifth month, experts argue that the key to ending the war lies not in Tehran or Washington, but in Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon — a central Iranian demand — remains the primary obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement, according to an analysis by Het Laatste Nieuws.
The Diplomatic Impasse
Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran and its regional allies, the Axis of Resistance. Hostilities began after US-Israeli airstrikes killed several Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel, US-aligned Arab countries, and American military bases across the region, while simultaneously blocking the Strait of Hormuz — disrupting global oil supplies on an unprecedented scale, according to Wikipedia.
A two-week ceasefire in April collapsed after Israel attacked Lebanon and Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On 17 June 2026, the US and Iran signed a “memorandum of understanding” — a basic framework agreement described by Vice President JD Vance as no more than 1.5 pages and “quite general.” But on 8 July, that interim ceasefire collapsed following renewed US strikes on Iranian targets, and the conflict has continued to intensify.
Israel’s Refusal to Withdraw
The central obstacle to peace is Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon. Iran made ending the Lebanon war a non-negotiable condition for any agreement. However, Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Israel will remain in “security zones” in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria “as long as necessary” to defend the country.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reinforced this position, declaring: “We oppose a withdrawal of the army from Lebanon, despite all existing pressure and the pressure yet to come.”
Erwin van Veen, a Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, argues that substantially more pressure on Israel is needed to move toward peace. “Israel has little interest in peace in the region,” Van Veen said. “It not only wants to continue fighting in Lebanon itself, but also still hopes for a regime change in Iran.”
The US-Israel Rift
The relationship between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu has deteriorated significantly over the course of the conflict. Trump reportedly called Netanyahu “crazy” in a phone call and told the Financial Times that he “determines everything” while Netanyahu “has nothing to say.” Israeli officials described the June memorandum as “terrible for Israel.”
This growing rift presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The US has quietly abandoned its original war goals, including regime change in Iran. Both sides acknowledge that Iran cannot win militarily, and the Trump administration is seeking an exit before the November midterm elections, as the war has become increasingly unpopular with American voters due to rising fuel prices.
The Strait of Hormuz Leverage
Iran has wielded a powerful economic weapon throughout the conflict: control of the Strait of Hormuz. By blocking the strategic waterway, Iran has disrupted global oil supplies, causing economic pain not only for the US and its allies but also for Iran itself, whose oil exports have ground to a halt. Conflicting statements have emerged about whether the strait will reopen toll-free or with “maritime service fees.”
Countries including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt are exerting significant pressure on Washington to pursue peace. According to Van Veen, these nations are “on the right track” but still cannot match Israel’s influence in Washington.
A Possible Compromise
Despite the entrenched positions, Van Veen suggests a potential compromise: Israel could remain in southern Lebanon temporarily but only be permitted to fire in self-defense. This would create a “continuous low level of violence” that Iran could accept as a face-saving measure.
Nate Swanson, a former US Iran negotiator, predicts a pattern of escalation followed by renewed negotiations. “I expect this will calm down before Monday morning when the markets in Asia open,” Swanson said. “That fits the pattern.” He added: “But I hope that reason will prevail again.”
What to Watch For
The coming weeks may determine whether the conflict de-escalates or spirals further. Key factors include whether the US is willing to exert sufficient pressure on its closest Middle Eastern ally — a move that would further strain the already deteriorating Trump-Netanyahu relationship — and whether the November midterm elections create enough political urgency for a peace deal.
Regional mediators like Pakistan and Turkey could play an increasingly important role, and the question of whether the Strait of Hormuz crisis can be resolved without a comprehensive peace agreement remains open. As both sides acknowledge that military victory is impossible, the path to peace runs through Jerusalem — and through Washington’s willingness to take the difficult step of pressing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.