Fuel Prices Surge in Belgium as Refining Costs Drive Up Pump Prices

Belgian motorists are facing a significant increase in fuel prices as of July 10, with diesel surging past the EUR 2 per litre threshold once again. While rising crude oil prices — driven by renewed Middle East tensions — play a role, analysts point to a less visible but equally powerful factor: historically high refining margins that are amplifying costs at the pump.

The Numbers at the Pump

According to the SPF Economie, Belgium’s federal pricing authority, the maximum price for diesel B7 has risen to EUR 2.1020 per litre — an increase of 13.5 euro cents from the previous rate. Petrol 95 RON E10 now costs a maximum of EUR 1.909 per litre, up 5.9 euro cents, while premium petrol 98 RON E10 rose by 8.1 euro cents to EUR 2.043 per litre. Diesel B10 also increased by 13.5 euro cents, reaching EUR 2.094 per litre.

Beyond the Barrel: The Refining Factor

The price of crude oil has indeed climbed in recent days. On July 10, WTI crude traded around USD 72 per barrel and Brent around USD 76 per barrel, as reported by MarketWatch and the Financial Times. But as RTBF explains in its in-depth analysis, crude oil prices tell only part of the story.

The critical hidden factor is the refining margin — the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of refined products such as diesel, petrol, and kerosene. This margin incorporates energy costs, environmental regulations, labour expenses, and crucially, the profits expected by refinery operators. According to Goldman Sachs analysts cited by Reuters, refining margins are expected to remain two to three times higher than the 2013-2019 averages through the rest of 2026. Diesel refining margins are projected to reach USD 50 per barrel in the US and USD 37 per barrel in Europe by Q4 2026, and while they are expected to decline in 2027, they would remain elevated at around USD 41 and USD 29 per barrel respectively.

To put this in perspective: on July 10, a barrel of Brent crude cost around USD 76, while the refining margin on that same barrel could reach USD 41 — meaning the cost of processing alone approaches more than half the price of the raw material.

Why Refining Costs Are Soaring

Several factors are converging to keep refining margins elevated. The most significant is the damage to Russian refining capacity. As Le Grand Continent reports, since January 1, 2026, Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted 16 Russian refineries at least twice, representing 54.1% of Russia’s refining capacity — some 161 million tonnes per year. In total, 25 refineries representing 82% of capacity have been hit at least once this year. Some facilities, like the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea coast, have been struck up to four times, while the Yaroslavl refinery northeast of Moscow has been targeted six times since late March. Russia has responded by imposing a temporary ban on diesel exports to prevent domestic shortages.

Meanwhile, European refining capacity has been declining for years. Analyst Théo Le Chanu, cited by RTBF, notes that several European refineries have closed over the past decade, leaving the continent’s supply-demand balance fragile. The IFP Energies Nouvelles noted in its July 6 market report that at Rotterdam, refined product prices did not follow the decline in crude oil during the first week of July, with petrol rising 3.2% and diesel 2.8%, confirming persistent tensions in refined product markets. In Belgium specifically, only two refineries remain — TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil in Antwerp — after the Gunvor refinery closed several years ago. The federation Energia no longer publishes refining margin data, citing competition concerns with only two players remaining.

The Tax Component

Taxes account for approximately 50% of the pump price in Belgium. Current excise duties stand at roughly 60 euro cents per litre (a fixed amount), with 21% VAT applied on top of the total (product plus excise duties). This means that when pre-tax prices rise, the government collects additional VAT revenue — a dynamic that has revived discussions about activating the “cliquet inversé” (reverse ratchet) mechanism, which would reduce excise duties when prices climb sharply. Economist Philippe Defeyt of IDD, cited by RTBF, notes that the mechanism is relatively low-cost for the government since higher tax revenues during price spikes offset the reductions during price drops.

What This Means for Consumers

The impact on Belgian households is immediate. As RTL Info reported, motorists interviewed at a service station in Andenne expressed frustration. “In 15 days I’m leaving again and it’s tough,” one woman said, just back from holidays. Another calculated that the increase would mean “one less restaurant meal” during upcoming travel. The timing is particularly painful as many Belgians prepare for summer holidays.

Outlook

With refining margins expected to remain elevated through 2026 and potentially into 2027, and geopolitical tensions in both the Middle East and Ukraine showing no signs of abating, Belgian motorists may face sustained pressure at the pump. Even if crude oil prices continue to moderate — Brent has already fallen below pre-war levels — the structural factors driving up refining costs suggest that relief may be limited in the near term. The government’s potential response, including the possible reactivation of the “cliquet inversé” mechanism proposed by MR and Vooruit earlier this year, remains a key variable to watch. For now, Belgian consumers are left to navigate a complex market where the price at the pump depends on far more than just the cost of a barrel of oil.