Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz as US Launches New Airstrikes

Iran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping on July 12, 2026, as the United States military conducted a third wave of airstrikes targeting approximately 140 Iranian military positions. The dramatic escalation marks the most severe phase yet of the 2026 Iran War, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to VRT NWS.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways. At just 34 kilometers (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, it carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade. Before the war, 84% of crude oil shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets, with China receiving a third of its oil via this route. Europe also depends on the strait for 12-14% of its liquefied natural gas imports from Qatar.

Escalation Timeline: From Ceasefire to Renewed Conflict

The current crisis represents the collapse of a fragile peace architecture. On June 17, President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum, a framework agreement intended to end the war and reopen the strait. However, the agreement proved brittle. Iran closed the strait again on June 20, citing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon as a violation of the terms.

By early July, the situation had deteriorated sharply. The US launched airstrikes on July 8-9 hitting approximately 90 Iranian targets, and Iran retaliated against US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. On July 10, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement vowing revenge for his father’s killing. The following day, Iranian conservative newspaper Hamshahri published a “death list” infographic naming President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other Western leaders.

Conflicting Claims on the Strait’s Status

There are sharply conflicting accounts of the strait’s current status. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy declared the waterway “closed until further order,” with Tehran stating it would remain shut until US interference in the region ends. US Central Command (CENTCOM) countered on X that “the Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway. Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”

Independent tracking by Bloomberg tells a different story: shipping traffic has ground to a near-halt, with only two vessels spotted on July 9. The data suggests that while Iran may not be able to enforce a complete blockade, the threat of attacks has effectively deterred commercial shipping.

Military and Human Toll

The US third wave on July 12 struck missile launchers, ammunition depots, and communication networks across Iran. This follows approximately 90 targets on July 9 and 80 targets on July 8. Iran reports 14 dead and 78 wounded from the July 8-9 strikes, figures that cannot be independently verified. An Iranian army officer, Lt. Hamidreza Dehghan, was killed in Jask on July 12, and one Indian national remains missing after the commercial vessel GFS Galaxy was struck east of Oman. Total seafarer deaths since the crisis began now stand at 14.

Regional fallout has been severe. Kuwait reported attacks on three border posts and an offshore oil platform. Oman, traditionally a neutral mediator, suffered Iranian drone attacks on its Musandam exclave and summoned the Iranian ambassador — an extraordinary diplomatic move. In Qatar, three people including a child were wounded by falling debris. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has advised airlines to avoid the airspace of Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.

The Human Cost at Sea

Approximately 6,000 seafarers remain trapped aboard ships in the Persian Gulf, unable to safely leave. Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), said the attacks “only reinforce the fear, uncertainty, and psychological distress” in which these mariners find themselves.

The Role of Israel in Ending the Conflict

Experts point to Israel as the key to resolving the broader crisis. Erwin van Veen, a Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute, told HLN that “the key to ending the Iran-US war lies in Israel. The US must exert much more pressure on Israel.” The June memorandum required Israel to end operations in southern Lebanon, but Prime Minister Netanyahu has resisted withdrawal and reportedly continues to hope for regime change in Iran.

Nate Swanson, a US Iran expert and former negotiator, offered a cautiously optimistic view: “I expect this to settle down before Asian markets open on Monday. That fits the pattern.” He suggested the bombardments may be the latest in a series of “flames in the pan” — intense but brief escalations that ultimately lead back to negotiations.

Economic Shockwaves

Oil markets have reacted with volatility. Brent crude stood at $78.88 per barrel on July 9, up 1.1%, after having spiked to $126 in March — the largest monthly oil price increase in history. The pre-war price was approximately $72 per barrel. European stock markets have also been affected, with the Bel20 index falling 1.64% and the UK FTSE dropping 1.66%.

What to Watch For

The Islamabad Memorandum is described as “not completely dead and buried” but severely damaged. Several questions will determine the trajectory of the crisis: whether the US and Iran can return to negotiations; whether Israel can be pressured to withdraw from Lebanon; how Asian markets will cope with prolonged oil supply disruption; and whether the assassination threats against Trump and other leaders will materialize. With US midterm elections approaching in November 2026, domestic political pressures may also influence Trump’s strategy in the weeks ahead.