Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz as US Bombings Escalate War
Iran has completely closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping as the United States conducts renewed bombing campaigns against Iranian targets, marking a dramatic escalation in the months-long conflict between the two nations. The developments on 12 July 2026 represent the collapse of a fragile ceasefire brokered just weeks ago, with experts suggesting that Israel holds the key to any path toward de-escalation.
Background of the Conflict
The 2026 Iran war began on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The strikes followed failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a prior 12-day air conflict in 2025. According to VRT NWS, the conflict has since spiraled into a regional crisis affecting the entire Persian Gulf.
A temporary ceasefire was reached on 17 June 2026, when President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. However, the agreement proved fragile, collapsing amid mutual accusations of violations and Israel’s continued military operations in southern Lebanon.
Strait of Hormuz: A Strategic Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is a 34-kilometer-wide strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil — 20% of global seaborne oil trade — pass through the strait daily, along with 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. The closure represents the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the strait “closed until further notice,” while US Central Command (CENTCOM) counters that “Iran has no control over the strait” and that shipping traffic is normal. However, according to Bloomberg, shipping traffic has ground to a near halt, with only two vessels spotted on 9 July.
Renewed Hostilities
The latest escalation began on 8 July when Iran struck commercial ships in the strait. The US responded with massive strikes on approximately 90 to 140 Iranian targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, missile and drone storage facilities, and naval infrastructure along the Iranian coastline. According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, 14 people were killed and 78 wounded in those strikes.
Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, and firing 10 ballistic missiles at a Jordanian military base in Azraq. Three border crossings and an oil platform were attacked in Kuwait. The EASA has advised airlines to avoid the airspace of Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.
President Trump confirmed the strikes on Truth Social, stating: “This is retaliation for the Iranian bombings of ships yesterday. If something like that happens again, it will be much worse.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed support, saying: “I think what you did last night was absolutely necessary. It was a very strong response.”
The “Death List” and Revenge Vows
Tensions have been further inflamed by the publication of a “death list” in the conservative Iranian newspaper Hamshahri. The infographic features world leaders to be killed in revenge for Khamenei’s death, including Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Giorgia Meloni, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz.
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father and is reportedly wounded from the same strike that killed him, has sworn revenge in a written statement read on state television: “Revenge is the demand of our people and must certainly take place.”
Israel: The Key to Peace?
According to experts cited by Het Laatste Nieuws, Israel holds the key to de-escalation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has resisted withdrawing from southern Lebanon, where it continues operations against Hezbollah — a key condition Iran has demanded for reopening the strait.
Erwin van Veen, Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute, suggests a possible compromise: “For example, that Israel may temporarily remain in southern Lebanon, but may only shoot in self-defense. Then you get a continuous low level of violence, but Iran can step over that.”
Van Veen notes that regional powers including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt are increasingly lobbying Washington for peace. “They are much better than before at lobbying in Washington. Not yet like Israel, but they are on the right track.”
Economic Fallout
The conflict has sent shockwaves through global markets. Brent crude oil surged to $80.10 per barrel on 8 July, an 8% single-day increase. At its peak during the conflict, Brent surpassed $126 per barrel. The war has cost US taxpayers an estimated $113.3 billion as of mid-June 2026.
Approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded on ships in the Persian Gulf, unable to safely transit the strait. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated: “These attacks only reinforce the fear, uncertainty and psychological distress in which the approximately 6,000 seafarers already find themselves, trapped on board ships that cannot safely leave the Gulf.”
What’s Next
American Iran expert and former negotiator Nate Swanson predicts a rapid return to negotiations: “I expect this to settle down again before Monday morning when the Asian markets open. That fits the pattern.” However, with US midterm elections approaching in November 2026 and hardliners on both sides pushing for continued confrontation, the path to peace remains uncertain. The key question is whether Washington can apply sufficient pressure on Israel to reach a compromise that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and the conflict to de-escalate.