Trump’s Support Erodes Among White Working-Class Voters
President Donald Trump’s approval rating is declining sharply among white working-class voters — the demographic that formed the bedrock of his electoral coalition in 2016, 2020, and 2024 — according to a comprehensive USA Today analysis published Sunday. Multiple major polls show that rising prices, the economic impact of the Iran war, and Trump’s tariff policies are driving the erosion, raising questions about Republican prospects in the November midterm elections.
The Scale of the Shift
The polling data reveals an unprecedented decline. A CBS News-YouGov poll in May found 54% of white non-college voters disapproved of Trump’s performance, up from 32% in February 2025 — a 22-point swing. Trump’s net approval among this group plunged from +36 to −8 over 15 months, a 44-point drop that political analysts describe as extraordinary.
A June NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 49% of white non-college voters disapproved of Trump, while 44% said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate — up from just 30% ahead of the 2018 midterms. An April Fox News poll put disapproval at 51%, with 69% of white rural voters saying the economy was getting worse.
According to a New York Times analysis, working-class white voters approved of Trump’s economic management by margins of 30+ percentage points in 2018. Now, polls show them disapproving by 14 to more than 30 points — what the Times called an “extraordinary swing.”
Economic Pain Driving Discontent
The primary driver is the rising cost of necessities. The U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran — “Operation Epic Fury” — has driven up oil prices, pushing gas and food costs higher. Trump’s tariffs on trading partners have disrupted agricultural markets, and the expiration of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies has driven up health insurance costs for working-class families.
In Jackson, Missouri, Ashton Reed, 22, voted for Trump in 2024 drawn by promises to recharge the economy. Since then, he has been laid off from his HVAC job, watched prices rise, and found health insurance unaffordable after pandemic-era subsidies expired. “A huge chunk of why I voted for him in 2024 was because of economics,” Reed told USA Today. “Obviously not happy with him at all.”
In Hazard, Kentucky, Denver Feltner, 38, a father of five working two jobs, said his grocery bills have spiked and his health insurance premiums went up four-fold. “I was pretty good under his first term, but it’s completely different,” he said. Feltner now says affordable health care will determine his vote in November.
Even among those who still support Trump, the strain is evident. Bob Worth, 73, a soybean farmer in Lincoln County, Minnesota, said his farm’s cash flow is “in the red” due to low crop prices and high fuel and fertilizer costs driven up by the Iran war. Still, he maintains faith: “I’m thinking he’s going in the right direction. We won’t know until we get a little bit further in it.”
Tariffs and Manufacturing
Trump’s tariffs were intended to revive American manufacturing, but the results have been mixed. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, manufacturing jobs have seen a slight decline since Trump took office. Some auto companies have scaled back electric vehicle projects as the administration rolled back Biden-era support. Heath Brown, a professor of public policy at John Jay College, noted that trade efforts “take a long time to come to fruition or be noticed by voters.”
Farm bankruptcies increased 46% in 2025 from a year earlier, according to the Farm Bureau. Soybean exports to China were halted, then partially restored via a purchase agreement through 2028.
Midterm Implications
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. Historical trends suggest the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections — the GOP lost 41 House seats in 2018. Current polling suggests the 2026 losses could be significant.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in June found 48% of rural voters disapproved of Trump, up from 34% in February 2025. In Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that the race for governor and two House seats are now rated as tossups.
Noam Lupu, a Vanderbilt University political science professor, cautioned that voting behavior changes slowly. “People change their preferences and their voting behavior typically very, very slowly, and often not at all,” he said. However, he noted that growing disapproval could hurt Republicans by dampening turnout, even if relatively few voters switch parties.
White House spokesman Kush Desai argued that the economic pain is temporary, stating that once “traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool.”
What to Watch
The central question is whether this represents a temporary, price-driven grumble or a durable realignment. An analysis from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia suggests that ideological alignment — not just economic discontent — drove white working-class support for Trump in 2024, meaning the cultural and partisan ties may hold even as economic confidence wanes.
As the midterms approach, the trajectory of the Iran war, inflation rates, and whether Democratic candidates can capitalize on working-class discontent will determine whether this polling shift translates into electoral change.