US Strikes Iran as Tehran Closes Strait of Hormuz in Major Escalation
The United States has launched a third round of massive airstrikes against Iran, hitting more than 300 targets over three nights, after Tehran declared the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. The escalation threatens to upend global oil markets and has drawn warnings from regional mediators who say the key to de-escalation may lie in Israel’s role in the conflict.
The Latest Strikes
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it completed a third round of strikes overnight, hitting 140 targets including rocket launchers, ammunition depots, and communication networks, according to NPR. Over three nights, CENTCOM struck more than 300 targets “to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels freely transiting the strait.”
The strikes were triggered after Iran fired at a container vessel attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s navy said it fired warning shots that hit the ship after “several ships attempted to travel along an unapproved route.” CENTCOM reported one civilian crew member went missing and the vessel abandoned its journey due to “onboard fire and significant engine room damage.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on social media: “Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay.”
Strait of Hormuz: Competing Claims
Iran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice” and until American interference in the region ends. However, CENTCOM maintains the strait is “open for all ships wishing to lawfully transit this international waterway,” stating that “American troops are on site and ready to ensure freedom of navigation.”
The reality on the ground paints a more complicated picture. According to Bloomberg, shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt — from an average of 34 ships per day to just 14 on July 9. The International Maritime Organization expressed deep concern for approximately 6,000 seafarers stuck on board ships that cannot safely leave the Gulf.
Brent crude rose to $78.88 per barrel, briefly exceeding $80, as approximately 20-25% of global oil passes through the strait. Before the war began in late February, Brent was trading at about $72 per barrel.
Iran’s Response and Regional Fallout
Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks against U.S. allies across the Gulf. The IRGC claimed responsibility for strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, describing them as “a first punitive response” to U.S. attacks. Iranian drones also struck targets in Oman, which had remained neutral. Falling shrapnel in Qatar injured three people, including a child. Jordan reported three Iranian rockets landed on its territory without casualties.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, speaking after the funeral of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February — delivered a defiant message: “We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers.”
Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on social media: “The era of one-sided deals is OVER. Let me be clear: if you strike, you get hit.”
In a further provocative move, the Iranian ultraconservative newspaper Hamshahri published an AI-generated “death list” of 13 Western leaders, including President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and several European heads of government, depicted in orange prison uniforms with targets marked on their heads.
Israel: The Key Variable
Experts suggest that Israel may hold the key to de-escalation. The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran — a framework for ending hostilities — has been severely undermined, particularly over the issue of the war in Lebanon. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon.
Erwin van Veen, Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute, told HLN that the U.S. must exert much more pressure on Israel to move toward peace. “Israel has little interest in peace in the region. It not only wants to continue fighting in Lebanon, but also hopes for regime change in Iran.” A possible compromise, van Veen suggested, would allow Israel to remain in South Lebanon temporarily but only fire in self-defense.
Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel is ready to strike Iran again “for a third time if necessary,” though Israel has not participated in the latest round of attacks.
Diplomatic Efforts and Economic Pressures
Regional mediators in Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar continue to push for diplomacy. Pakistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told Iranian officials that “dialogue and diplomacy remain the only viable path to resolving disputes.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte supported the U.S. strikes, calling them “absolutely necessary.”
However, the war carries significant political costs. With midterm elections approaching in November, the conflict is deeply unpopular in the United States — three in five Americans oppose the war, according to polling cited by The American Conservative. The war has already cost U.S. taxpayers $113.3 billion.
Former U.S. negotiator Nate Swanson offered a cautiously optimistic view: “I expect this to calm down again before Asian markets open on Monday morning. That fits the pattern.” He suggested this week’s bombings could be “yet another flare-up: fierce but short, and the prelude to a new round of negotiations.”
What to Watch
The immediate question is whether the competing claims over the Strait of Hormuz can be resolved without a broader military confrontation. With Iran insisting the waterway is closed and the U.S. asserting freedom of navigation, the risk of direct naval engagement remains high. The U.S. has urged ships to use a southern route hugging the coast of Oman, but Iran considers this a violation of the June 17 memorandum.
As both sides dig in, the path forward remains uncertain. Whether diplomacy can prevail — and whether Israel can be brought to the table — will determine whether this latest escalation becomes another chapter in a cycle of violence or a turning point toward a broader regional settlement.