Belgium Reform: 40.8% of Excluded Turn to Social Welfare

More than 40% of Belgians who lost their unemployment benefits under the country’s sweeping new reform have turned to public social welfare centers (CPAS) for support — significantly exceeding the government’s forecast of one-third. An interactive map published by RTBF reveals that 39,797 out of 97,652 people excluded from unemployment benefits between January and May 2026 have obtained income support from CPAS, a national average of 40.8%.

Context: The Arizona Coalition’s Reform

Since January 1, 2026, Belgium’s “Arizona” coalition government (N-VA, MR, Les Engagés, CD&V, Vooruit) has implemented a landmark reform limiting unemployment benefits to a maximum of two years. Previously, Belgium was one of the few countries with no time limit on unemployment benefits. The reform is being rolled out in waves: people unemployed for more than 20 years were excluded in January, those unemployed for 8 to 20 years in March, those with less than 8 years of cumulative unemployment in April, and most recently, people unemployed for more than one year were affected on July 1 — adding approximately 42,000 additional people. In total, the reform is expected to affect nearly 194,000 people.

Regional Disparities Revealed

The RTBF map, created by journalist Gwenaël Poleyn, exposes stark regional differences. In Wallonia, 46.2% of excluded individuals have turned to CPAS, compared to 39.3% in Brussels and 30.9% in Flanders. Some municipalities report rates exceeding 60%, with Froidchapelle (67%), Chimay (65%), and Beauraing (64%) recording the highest figures. Major Walloon cities also show elevated rates: Mons (56%), Namur (55%), Verviers (54%), Liège (53%), Tournai (52%), and Charleroi (51%).

Employment Minister David Clarinval (MR) has attributed the higher rates in Wallonia to a “cultural effect,” telling La Première that “in certain large cities, we see a more significant proportion. There is a very important cultural effect at play.”

However, CPAS experts offer a different explanation. Sandrine Xhauflaire, advisor to the Federation of CPAS of Wallonia (UVCW), told RTBF that structural economic factors are the primary driver: “Cities concentrate more poverty, and therefore, inevitably, the transfer rates are higher. The large Walloon cities are mostly located in former industrial basins, which we know are more affected by poverty.”

Government Forecast vs. Reality

The government had anticipated that roughly one-third of excluded individuals would turn to CPAS, one-third would find work, and one-third would do neither. The 40.8% CPAS dependency rate — already above the 33% forecast after just five months — suggests the government underestimated the burden on municipal welfare systems. Moreover, official figures likely understate the true scale, as CPAS have 30 days to process applications before encoding them. Charleroi’s CPAS, for instance, already reports a rate of 59% as of July 7, while Liège’s CPAS president Jean-Paul Bonjean reports 61% across the first three waves.

Financial Pressure on Municipalities

The strain on CPAS is compounded by a degressive federal reimbursement scheme: the federal government covers 100% of costs in 2026, dropping to 90% in 2027, 80% in 2028, and 75% thereafter. Charleroi estimates the cost at €2.3 million in 2026 and €7.2 million in 2027. The three CPAS federations have requested financial compensation and temporary administrative flexibility, but according to RTBF, these requests have largely been denied.

“Never has any social security institution had to face such an increase in its clientele,” Xhauflaire said. “And with, so to speak, no additional resources.”

Employment Re-Entry Challenges

The reform’s stated goal is to boost employment, but early results are modest. Only 10% of first-wave excluded individuals found work, far below the 33% target. Minister Clarinval has expressed optimism that this figure will triple by year’s end, but CPAS officials on the ground describe a deeply vulnerable population requiring intensive support — with no dedicated funding for reintegration.

“Socio-professional integration is supposedly the primary objective of governments,” said Jean-Paul Bonjean, President of CPAS Liège. “And I note that not a single euro has been released to help us get these people back to work.”

Experts warn that this is not a temporary wave but a structural shift. As Sandrine Xhauflaire put it: “It will never stop. As soon as a person reaches two years of unemployment, they will be excluded. It’s going to be a continuous cycle.” The reform fundamentally shifts responsibility from federal unemployment insurance to municipal-level social assistance, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Belgium’s social safety net — particularly as the July 2026 wave and future exclusions continue to drive demand.

What to Watch For

The next monthly publications from the SPP Intégration Sociale will reveal whether the July 2026 wave pushes the national average even higher. Meanwhile, municipalities across Wallonia and Brussels are bracing for a permanent increase in their welfare caseloads, with the degressive federal funding formula set to compound their financial challenges from 2027 onward.