Belgium Unemployment Reform: 40.8% Turn to Social Welfare

More than 40% of Belgians who lost their unemployment benefits under the country’s new two-year limit have turned to local social welfare centers (CPAS) for support — already surpassing the government’s anticipated one-third projection. An interactive map published by RTBF reveals stark regional disparities, with rates reaching as high as 67% in some rural communes and exceeding 50% in major Walloon cities.

The Reform and Its Impact

Since January 1, 2026, the Belgian federal government — the “Arizona” coalition led by Prime Minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) — has limited unemployment benefits to a maximum of two years, one of the most significant social security reforms in recent Belgian history. The reform rolls out in waves: starting with those unemployed for over 20 years in January, followed by those unemployed 8-20 years in March, those with less than 8 years of cumulative unemployment in April, and most recently on July 1, those unemployed for more than one year — affecting approximately 42,000 additional people.

According to ONEM (the National Employment Office), 97,652 exclusions were recorded from January to May 2026. Of those, 39,797 people (40.8%) have applied for and received the “Revenu d’Intégration Sociale” (RIS) from CPAS — already exceeding the government’s anticipated 33% projection. Ultimately, the reform is expected to affect nearly 194,000 people.

Regional Disparities: A Tale of Three Regions

The national average masks significant regional variation. In Wallonia, 46.2% of excluded individuals turn to CPAS, compared to 39.3% in Brussels and 30.9% in Flanders. Major Walloon cities report particularly high rates: Mons (56%), Namur (55%), Verviers (54%), Liège (53%), Tournai (52%), and Charleroi (51%).

Perhaps most striking, the highest rates are found not in cities but in rural communes: Froidchapelle (67%), Chimay (65%), and Beauraing (64%). As Sandrine Xhauflaire, advisor to the Federation of CPAS of Wallonia (UVCW), explained to RTBF: “Cities concentrate more poverty and therefore, inevitably, the transfer rates are higher. The large Walloon cities are mostly located in former industrial basins which, as we know, are more affected by poverty.”

The “Cultural Effect” Controversy

Minister of Employment David Clarinval (MR) has attributed the higher rates in Walloon cities to what he described as “a very important cultural effect,” noting that Flanders shows lower rates “even in large cities.” However, CPAS experts and social analysts contest this explanation, pointing instead to structural economic factors. Xhauflaire emphasized that the Flanders/Wallonia divide reflects decades of divergent economic development rather than cultural differences.

Official Figures Already Outdated

The published figures represent a floor, not a ceiling. Due to a 30-day processing delay for CPAS applications, the official numbers lag behind reality. In Charleroi, the rate had already reached 55% by end of June and 59% by July 7. In Liège, CPAS President Jean-Paul Bonjean reported that 61% of excluded individuals from the first three waves — 2,829 people — had sought CPAS support. Regarding the July wave, he noted: “They had announced 1,253 people for Liège. We are at precisely 1,829.”

Who Is Affected? The Human Toll

A detailed analysis by Solidaris, the mutual health insurance organization, examined 81,227 of its affiliates affected by the reform (47% of all excluded). The findings paint a troubling picture:

1 in 6 excluded is a single-parent family head (9,225 families), 85% of whom are single mothers
72,229 children are affected by the loss of parental income
33% of Wave 4 excluded are over 55 years old
Excluded individuals have significantly worse health: 28% suffer from cardiovascular problems (vs. 12% in the general working population)

Jean-Pascal Labille, Secretary General of Solidaris, warned: “Behind these figures, there are thousands of parents who risk losing their only income and tens of thousands of children whose living conditions will be directly affected. An employment reform cannot ignore its social and health consequences.”

CPAS Under Strain

The reform has placed unprecedented pressure on Belgium’s social welfare infrastructure. CPAS caseloads have already increased by approximately 20% in the first four months of 2026, with projections of 30-40% by year-end. As Xhauflaire noted: “Never has any social security institution had to face such an increase in its public… And with, so to speak, no additional resources.”

Compounding the challenge, the federal government’s reimbursement for RIS is degressive: 100% in 2026, 90% in 2027, 80% in 2028, and 75% thereafter. Charleroi CPAS estimates net costs of €2.3 million in 2026 and €7.2 million in 2027. Meanwhile, Bonjean pointed out a critical paradox: “There is not a single euro allocated, neither by the federal nor the regional government, to help us get these people back to work.”

Return-to-Work Reality

The government projected that 33% of excluded individuals would return to work. However, only 10% of the first wave had found employment — far below projections. Minister Clarinval claimed this figure would triple by year-end, but CPAS workers on the ground remain skeptical.

As Xhauflaire observed: “It’s never going to stop. As soon as a person reaches two years of unemployment, they will be excluded. It’s going to be a continuous cycle.” The reform represents a fundamental transfer of responsibility from federal unemployment insurance to local social assistance — a shift that raises profound questions about the future of Belgium’s social safety net.

What to Watch For

The July wave — the largest yet — will test whether CPAS systems can cope with the continued influx. Upcoming monthly publications from the SPP Intégration Sociale will reveal whether transfer rates climb even higher. With municipalities facing growing fiscal pressure from the degressive federal funding model, the coming months will be critical in determining whether Belgium’s social welfare infrastructure can withstand the strain of this historic reform.