China Closed 30,000 Schools in 2025 as Births Decline

China shut nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025, the starkest sign yet that a prolonged demographic slump is fundamentally upending the country’s vast education system, according to a Caixin Global report based on the Ministry of Education’s 2025 National Education Development Statistical Bulletin. The closures — approximately 21,400 kindergartens and 8,000 primary schools — reflect a structural divergence in which early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly while high schools and universities expand to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks.

Context: A Demographic Tidal Wave

China’s birth rate has been in steady decline since 2017, following a temporary spike in 2016 after the two-child policy was implemented. The number of newborns fell from 17.86 million in 2016 to an estimated below 8 million in 2025 — a decline of over 55%. This demographic shift is the primary driver of school closures, as the shrinking cohort of children moves through the education system.

As Caixin Global reported earlier this year, primary school enrollment nationwide fell to 14.617 million in 2025 — a drop of nearly 10% from the previous year and a 22% contraction from the recruitment peak in 2023. Kindergarten enrollment dropped by 3.58 million to 32.25 million, down approximately 10%.

The Numbers Behind the Closures

The cumulative toll is staggering. Over four years (2021–2025), China has closed 62,900 kindergartens. Primary school closures have accelerated as well, with approximately 15,200 shuttered over two years (2024–2025). By the end of 2025, China had 231,900 kindergartens (down 8.45% from 2024) and roughly 128,300 primary schools.

The closures have been accompanied by a contraction in the teaching workforce. Total teaching staff fell to 15.68 million in 2025, down 150,000 from 2024 and representing a cumulative decline of 216,800 teachers over two years. Beijing Normal University projects that by 2035, China will have a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers, with 700,000–900,000 excess teachers projected for 2025–2030.

A Tale of Two Education Systems

While preschool and primary education contract, secondary and higher education are still expanding. Middle school admissions rose to 18.52 million in 2025, and regular high schools increased by 300 to 16,100. This is because the larger birth cohorts from 2016–2017 are now entering middle school and high school.

Higher education continues to grow rapidly. The gross enrollment rate reached 61.3% in 2025. Master’s graduates exceeded 1 million (1,053,600) for the first time, doctoral graduates surpassed 100,000 (112,900), and doctoral enrollment exceeded 200,000 (201,600) — all record highs, according to the 36kr analysis by Multiple Whales.

Government Response: The 15th Five-Year Plan

The State Council released its 15th Five-Year Plan for Education Development (2026–2030) on June 29, 2026, outlining strategies for adapting to these demographic shifts. Key measures include establishing a monitoring and early warning system for school-age population changes, optimizing the layout of primary and secondary schools and kindergartens, promoting small-class teaching, and supporting kindergartens in developing integrated childcare services for 2–3 year olds. The plan also commits to maintaining education spending at no less than 4% of GDP, as detailed in the official government document.

Regional Disparities and the Rural Impact

Rural schools have been hit hardest. According to Ministry of Education projections, over 80% of rural teaching points may face closure by 2026, creating what analysts describe as a “rural shrinkage, urban saturation” polarized pattern. In Yujiang District, Jiangxi Province, 140 of 147 rural small-scale schools were closed — a 95.24% optimization rate. Luoyang City, Henan Province, eliminated 456 teaching points in a single year in 2023, nearly 60% of the city’s total.

Private kindergartens and schools have been disproportionately affected. In 2024, private schools nationwide decreased by about 15,000. The closure trend has led to legal disputes, including a case where a private kindergarten sued the local education bureau for 2.19 million yuan in compensation.

Analysis and Implications

The rapid closure of schools represents a massive waste of physical infrastructure and poses a significant challenge for local governments managing idle assets. Some regions have begun repurposing closed kindergartens — in Zhejiang, a kindergarten was converted into a community elder care facility, a model that may become more common as China’s population ages.

For teachers, the outlook is challenging. Multiple regions have launched pilot programs for “primary school teacher transfer to middle school” to address the supply-demand imbalance. The teacher surplus, however, also presents an opportunity: 85.3% of primary teachers now hold bachelor’s degrees, up from 70.3% in 2021, as qualification standards rise.

What’s Next

China is transitioning from a quantity-focused to a quality-focused education model, with smaller class sizes and higher per-student investment. The demographic wave that has hollowed out kindergartens will continue moving through the system — junior high schools are expected to peak in 2026, followed by high schools around 2029. Whether China’s birth rate can stabilize or recover enough to halt the closure trend remains one of the most consequential open questions for the country’s long-term economic competitiveness and innovation capacity.