China’s H1 Foreign Trade Breaks 25 Trillion Yuan, Up 16.9%

China’s total foreign trade in the first half of 2026 surpassed 25 trillion yuan (approximately $3.5 trillion USD) for the first time in any half-year period, reaching 25.47 trillion yuan — a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) on July 14. The milestone was announced at a State Council Information Office press conference by GAC Vice Minister Wang Jun, who described the performance as demonstrating “strong growth momentum and stable performance” despite a complex global economic environment.

Context: Resilient Trade Amid Global Headwinds

The H1 2026 trade data comes at a time of persistent global challenges, including inflationary pressures, rising trade barriers, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and continued strain on global supply chains. Despite these headwinds, China’s trade sector has shown remarkable resilience. The year 2026 also marks the beginning of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), making the trade performance a key early indicator of the plan’s trajectory.

According to Xinhua News, exports reached 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year and maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters, while imports totaled 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% — with import growth outpacing exports by 8.7 percentage points, contributing to a more balanced trade structure.

Accelerating Growth Momentum

The second quarter of 2026 saw particularly strong performance. CCTV reported that Q2 trade reached 13.61 trillion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year — the highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2021. In June alone, monthly trade hit 4.78 trillion yuan, a 24.2% increase that marked 17 consecutive months of growth.

Diversified Markets and Belt and Road Expansion

A notable feature of H1 2026 trade was the continued diversification of trading partners. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries reached 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, and now accounts for 50.9% of China’s total foreign trade — underscoring the strategic importance of the initiative. Trade with neighboring countries grew 20.6% to 9.44 trillion yuan, while trade with Latin America rose 16.2% and with Africa 19.6%. Trade with the European Union increased by 10.2%.

Private Sector Leads, All Regions Grow

Private enterprises continued to drive China’s trade engine, handling 14.53 trillion yuan in trade — 57% of the total — with growth of 17%. Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 7.39 trillion yuan (+17.1%), while state-owned enterprises accounted for 3.5 trillion yuan (+16.8%), according to the GAC data.

Regionally, growth was broad-based. The eastern region, which accounts for 78.8% of total trade, exceeded 20 trillion yuan with 16.5% growth. The western and central regions grew even faster at 20.3% and 20% respectively, while the northeast posted 8.6% growth.

Export Structure Upgrades: High-Tech and Independent Brands Surge

Perhaps the most significant structural story is the rapid upgrading of China’s export mix. Mechanical and electrical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan in exports, up 20.1%, now representing 63.5% of total exports — a 3.5 percentage point increase from a year earlier. High-tech product exports surged 39% to 3.26 trillion yuan, while independent brand exports grew 25.4%, with their share rising 2.4 percentage points.

This shift reflects China’s ongoing industrial upgrading toward higher value-added manufacturing. In a related development, industrial robot exports reached 6.29 billion yuan in H1 2026, up 18.6%, shipped to 141 countries and regions. Surgical robot exports saw explosive growth of 330% to 480 million yuan, reaching 49 markets — more than double the 23 markets served a year earlier.

Robust Domestic Demand Driving Imports

Import growth of 22.1% significantly outpaced export growth, signaling strong domestic demand. Bulk commodity imports — including energy and metal ores — reached 14.29 billion tons, up 3.4%. Mechanical and electrical product imports rose 28% to 4.41 trillion yuan, while agricultural imports grew 8.6% to 768.48 billion yuan.

Cautious Outlook for Second Half

While celebrating the strong performance, GAC Vice Minister Wang Jun struck a note of caution. “Overall, in the first half of this year, China’s foreign trade maintained a good operational trend,” Wang said at the press conference. “However, we must also recognize that global inflationary pressures have not eased, trade barriers have increased, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and global production and supply chains continue to face pressure. The second half of the year will face many risks and challenges in stabilizing foreign trade.”

What to Watch

Looking ahead, analysts will be monitoring several key factors: the trajectory of global inflation and interest rate policies, the evolution of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions — particularly ongoing US-Iran tensions — and the pace of China’s industrial upgrading. The government’s ability to sustain trade momentum through the second half of 2026, especially as base effects from strong 2025 comparisons take hold, will be a critical test of the 15th Five-Year Plan’s early execution.

Wang Jun affirmed that customs authorities will continue to “intensify efforts to implement cross-border trade facilitation measures” and “smooth the domestic and international dual circulation” to support a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.