China’s June Housing Declines Narrow, Signaling Stability

China’s commercial housing prices across all tiers of cities showed continued narrowing of year-on-year declines in June 2026, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on July 15. The data, covering 70 major cities, provides the clearest signal yet that policy measures to stabilize the country’s beleaguered property market are gradually taking effect.

According to Xinhua News, NBS Senior Statistician Yang Caifang reported that first-tier cities saw month-on-month price increases for the fourth consecutive month, while second- and third-tier cities showed mixed but improving results. Nationwide, new home prices in the 70 surveyed cities fell 0.15% month-on-month in June, narrowing from a 0.20% decline in May.

First-Tier Cities Lead the Recovery

The four first-tier cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen — posted an average 0.1% month-on-month increase in new home prices, marking the fourth straight month of gains. Shanghai and Shenzhen led with 0.3% increases each, followed by Guangzhou at 0.2%, while Beijing bucked the trend with a 0.3% decline.

On a year-on-year basis, first-tier city new home prices fell 1.3%, narrowing from a 1.7% decline in May. Shanghai stood out as the only major city with actual price appreciation, posting a 3.1% year-on-year increase, according to the data.

Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai and Guangzhou both recording 0.4% gains. However, year-on-year, second-hand prices in first-tier cities remained 4.9% lower, though this marked a significant improvement from the 5.8% decline recorded in May.

Broader Trends Across City Tiers

Second-tier cities saw new home prices flatten month-on-month at 0.0%, improving from a 0.1% decline in May, while year-on-year declines narrowed to 3.1%. Third-tier cities continued to face headwinds, with new home prices falling 0.3% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year, though the pace of monthly decline narrowed.

Nationally, 20 cities reported month-on-month new home price increases in June, up from 16 in May and the highest number since May 2025, as IndexBox reported. The number of cities with year-on-year price declines fell to 66 from 67.

Expert Perspectives on the Data

Yan Yuejin, vice-president of Shanghai-based E-House China Research and Development Institute, offered a cautiously optimistic assessment. “The year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months,” Yan told IndexBox. “This indicator better captures fundamental shifts in the property market and signals that, after years of sustained adjustments, the market has built up self-repair ability.”

Guosen Securities, in a research report cited by Sina Finance, noted that “the most pessimistic phase of the industry may have passed,” pointing to improvements in demand, price stabilization, and marginal rental recovery as positive signals.

Policy Context and Outlook

The June data arrives against a backdrop of evolving policy priorities. In March 2026, the Government Work Report shifted language from “stopping the fall and stabilizing” to “focusing on stabilizing” the real estate market, as Yicai Global reported. Yan Yuejin described this as a transition from crisis management to a new phase guided by the principles of “good housing and new models.”

The China Index Academy has emphasized that controlling new land supply and accelerating the clearance of existing housing inventory will be critical tools for improving the supply-demand balance and stabilizing market expectations.

Broader Economic Context

The housing data was released alongside H1 2026 GDP figures showing China’s economy grew 4.7% in the first half, with Q2 growth slowing to 4.3% — the slowest since late 2022. This broader economic slowdown underscores why housing market stabilization remains a top policy priority.

What to Watch

While the narrowing declines offer cautious optimism, analysts caution that the data signals stabilization rather than a full recovery. Key risks include the sustainability of the trend amid broader economic headwinds, the divergence between first-tier and lower-tier cities, and the ongoing financial stress faced by many developers.

According to Morningstar, home prices in the 70 major cities fell 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The coming months will reveal whether the narrowing trend can accelerate into genuine price recovery, particularly in lower-tier cities that have yet to show meaningful improvement.