US Strikes Iran in 7-Hour Blitz as Conflict Risks Becoming Forever War
The United States launched a sustained 7-hour military strike against Iran on Tuesday night, triggering immediate Iranian retaliation against American military facilities across the Gulf region, as a fragile ceasefire collapsed and President Donald Trump threatened to target Iranian power plants and bridges next week.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted the strikes beginning on the evening of July 14, deploying fighter aircraft, drones, and naval vessels against dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran’s southern coast, including missile and drone positions, naval forces, and coastal defense systems, according to Xinhua News. A second 90-minute wave followed on the morning of July 15, targeting coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island.
Iran Retaliates Across the Gulf
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by launching attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, claiming to have inflicted heavy damage on the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and a logistics hub at Mina Abdullah in Kuwait, as Al Jazeera reported. Jordan’s military said its air defenses intercepted and shot down three Iranian ballistic missiles that entered the country’s airspace early Wednesday.
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani reported more than 30 civilians killed in recent US strikes across southern Iran, while Health Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said over 260 people were injured. The Iranian army reported that 13 US missiles struck Bambour Garrison in Iranshahr, killing seven soldiers from the 388th Brigade.
Escalation After Ceasefire Collapse
The latest escalation comes less than a month after Washington and Tehran signed the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” on June 14, brokered by Pakistan, which extended an April ceasefire and set out plans for negotiations. Trump declared the ceasefire “over” on July 9, and both sides have since accused each other of violating the agreement, according to CNBC.
The US has also reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective the evening of July 14, prohibiting vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports. The blockade follows Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on July 11-12, with the IRGC warning it could close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies.”
Trump Threatens Infrastructure Targets
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday evening, Trump signaled the conflict was likely to intensify rather than de-escalate. “We’re going to hit them very hard tonight,” he said. “We’re going to hit them hard tomorrow night. We’re going to hit them really hard the night after.”
He went further, threatening to target Iranian power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran resumes negotiations. “Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants,” Trump said. “Next week comes the bridges. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”
Trump added that he would “save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we’ll hit energy targets,” as Military Times reported.
Oil Prices Surge on Supply Fears
Brent crude climbed to $86.19 per barrel, up sharply from near $70 before the latest escalation, as markets reacted to the blockade and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments daily before the war began in February.
The US Treasury froze over $130 million in cryptocurrency wallets linked to Iran’s central bank and announced fresh sanctions targeting 50 entities and individuals in an Iranian oil shipping network.
Analysts Warn of ‘Forever War’
Experts warn the conflict risks becoming a prolonged, intractable confrontation. Mike Rosenberg, a management professor at IESE Business School, told CNBC that “the Trump administration underestimated Iranian resolve and has no easy way out,” predicting that “the most likely outcome is some kind of permanent ceasefire negotiated by Pakistan without any nuclear guarantees.”
Andreas Böhm, a Middle East affairs specialist at the University of St. Gallen, described Trump as “stuck in a mess of his own (and Israel’s) making” who “can’t find a face-saving way out of it.” Böhm warned that the conflict “might result in a long-time low-level conflict and therefore one of the forever-wars Trump pledged to end.”
The Strait of Hormuz: An Asymmetric Battlefield
The narrow geography of the Strait of Hormuz — just 40 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, with coastal depths under 25 meters — favors Iranian asymmetric warfare capabilities, neutralizing US technological superiority. MIT international security scholar Caitlin Talmadge noted that “Iran holds the upper hand; the US has no good options” when it comes to escorting shipping through the strait.
Xinhua’s analysis characterizes the current phase as “escalated but not out of control,” noting that both sides have so far avoided targeting civilian infrastructure and energy assets — though Trump’s threats to hit power plants represent a potential qualitative escalation.
Regional Spillover Risks
Analysts warn the conflict could expand beyond the US-Iran theater. Israel, which has long sought to weaken Iran, may re-enter the conflict with elections approaching. Iran could activate its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, opening a second front against Washington and putting two of the world’s most vital energy arteries at risk. Hezbollah in Lebanon could also resume attacks on Israel.
Shanghai International Studies University professor Ding Long warned that Iran and the US have fallen into a “vicious cycle of attack and retaliation,” with the conflict escalating from probing exchanges to substantive escalation, and multiple regional flashpoints taking shape.
What’s Next
Despite the military escalation, diplomatic channels remain open. Iran maintains contact with Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan, and Trump acknowledged that a deal is still possible. However, analysts are deeply pessimistic about a near-term resolution. The key question is whether Trump will follow through on his threats to strike Iranian infrastructure — a move that would mark a dramatic escalation and could trigger a broader regional war with profound consequences for global energy markets and international security.