Michigan Primary Tests if Pro-Israel Democrat Can Win
With less than three weeks until Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, Rep. Haley Stevens holds a narrow but significant lead over progressive challenger Abdul El-Sayed in a race that has become a national bellwether for the Democratic Party’s direction on Israel and foreign policy. The August 4 primary will determine who faces former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in the general election for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters.
The State of the Race
A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted July 8-11 shows Stevens leading El-Sayed 48.2% to 41.4% among 500 likely Democratic primary voters. However, among firmly decided voters, the race is nearly tied — 34.1% say they will definitely vote for Stevens versus 33.7% for El-Sayed, leaving the 10% undecided as the decisive bloc.
The RealClearPolling average as of July 15 shows Stevens ahead 45% to 41%, a shift that reflects the race’s transformation since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign on July 5 and outside groups poured millions into advertising on Stevens’ behalf.
The Israel Factor
The central flashpoint of the race is Israel and the role of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). An AIPAC-aligned group, the United Democracy Project, has spent $15 million on advertising in the race, while another Super PAC, A Stronger Michigan, has spent $12 million supporting Stevens. Total outside spending to boost Stevens exceeds $49 million.
According to the Detroit News poll, 49% of likely Democratic primary voters hold an unfavorable view of AIPAC, with 34% expressing a “very” unfavorable opinion. Only 12% view the group favorably. Yet despite the intensity of the debate, voters rated a candidate’s position on Israel and Gaza at just 5.6 on a 10-point scale — below the threshold typically indicating high importance.
“It is not of high interest, despite the national narrative,” pollster Richard Czuba told the Detroit News. “What this issue has become is virtue-signaling to the far left that you’re one of us.”
Candidates Stake Out Contrasting Positions
During their July 7 debate, the two candidates laid out starkly different visions. Stevens, a centrist Democrat who has represented Michigan’s 11th district since 2019, defended her pro-Israel record. “I can say that Israel has a right to peacefully exist alongside the people of Palestine and in Gaza,” she said. “No one owns my vote, and no one owns my policies.”
El-Sayed, a former Detroit health official and son of Egyptian immigrants, countered by attacking the influence of outside money. “For too long, our foreign policy has been handed to us by the likes of the state of Israel and AIPAC,” he said. He has called Israel’s actions in Gaza “genocide” and advocates ending U.S. military aid to Israel.
Endorsements and Alliances
The race has drawn stark battle lines within the Democratic establishment. Stevens is backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Gary Peters, former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Rep. Jim Clyburn, and the DSCC. El-Sayed has the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
What the Polling Really Says
Despite the national attention on the Israel issue, the polling data suggests a more nuanced picture than either side’s narrative suggests. A majority of Michigan Democratic voters — 63% — support the creation of an independent Palestinian state in Gaza. Nearly 77% say Israel has a right to exist. And 70% believe Israel’s actions have “gone too far.”
These numbers reveal a Democratic electorate that is broadly critical of Israel’s current government but not anti-Israel — a distinction that may explain why Stevens’ pro-Israel stance has not proven disqualifying.
Implications for November
The Democratic primary winner will face former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed in the Republican primary and narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Holding this seat is critical to Democrats’ chances of winning back the Senate majority, and strategists are divided over which candidate would be stronger in the general election.
Some worry El-Sayed’s positions could make him vulnerable with moderate voters, while others argue Stevens’ AIPAC association could depress turnout among Arab American and Muslim voters in a state with one of the largest such populations in the country.
What to Watch
With the August 4 primary approaching, the race remains fluid. The 10% of undecided voters — who are largely neutral on AIPAC — will likely determine the outcome. Stevens’ 7-point polling lead is real but not insurmountable, particularly if El-Sayed can consolidate progressive support and turn out younger voters. The answer to whether a pro-Israel Democrat can still win a big primary may ultimately be: it depends on which voters show up.