Greater Bay Area Trade Breaks 1 Trillion Yuan in Historic First

The nine mainland cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) achieved a historic milestone in June 2026, with monthly import and export volume exceeding one trillion yuan (approximately US$138 billion) for the first time, according to China Customs statistics reported by CCTV News on July 17.

Total trade for June reached 1.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, marking the fourth consecutive month that the region has broken its previous monthly record. For the first half of 2026 (H1 2026), the nine mainland GBA cities recorded total trade of 5.3 trillion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year — outpacing the national average by four percentage points.

A Regional Economic Powerhouse

The GBA, comprising nine mainland cities — Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing — plus the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macao, covers less than 0.6% of China’s land area yet generates approximately 12% of national GDP. The region’s H1 trade accounted for 20.8% of China’s total imports and exports, contributing 24.9% of national trade growth.

Exports from the nine mainland cities reached 3.12 trillion yuan in H1, up 11.5%, while imports surged 37.5% to 2.18 trillion yuan — import growth outpacing export growth by 26 percentage points, signaling strong domestic demand and a rebalancing toward more balanced trade.

Private Sector Leads the Charge

Private enterprises drove the majority of the region’s trade dynamism. They accounted for 3.57 trillion yuan in trade, up 27.1% year-on-year, representing 67.5% of total GBA trade — a 3.2 percentage point increase from 2025. Their contribution to overall trade growth reached 83.1%. Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 1.56 trillion yuan, up 14.4%, representing 29.4% of the total.

Trade Diversification and Emerging Markets

Among the GBA’s top five trading partners, trade with Hong Kong grew fastest at 48%, reaching 818.6 billion yuan, underscoring the SAR’s role as a vital trade conduit. Trade with ASEAN reached 819.5 billion yuan (up 12.9%), followed by the EU at 558.9 billion yuan (up 6.6%), the US at 466.5 billion yuan (up 3.3%), and Taiwan at 440.7 billion yuan (up 7.1%).

Growth with emerging markets was notably stronger. Trade with Africa rose 17.7% to 158.2 billion yuan, with India up 18.7% to 118.7 billion yuan, and with the five Central Asian nations up 19.2% to 18.8 billion yuan, as reported by China Daily.

High-Tech and Green Exports Surge

The GBA’s export structure continued its shift toward higher value-added manufacturing. Electromechanical products totaled 2.23 trillion yuan, up 16%, accounting for 71.7% of exports — a 2.8 percentage point increase from the previous year. Integrated circuit exports surged 61.3% to 266.4 billion yuan, electrical equipment rose 26% to 254 billion yuan, and computers and parts grew 14.5% to 244.7 billion yuan.

Smart products posted even stronger gains: drone exports climbed 24.5% to 10.7 billion yuan, 3D printer exports skyrocketed 122.6% to 8.5 billion yuan, and digital camera exports rose 64.4% to 6.6 billion yuan. The “new three” green products — lithium batteries, photovoltaic products, and electric vehicles — collectively reached 119.2 billion yuan, up 37.2%.

Surging Imports Reflect Domestic Demand

Import growth was led by electromechanical products at 1.55 trillion yuan, up 34.4%, accounting for 71.1% of total imports. Integrated circuit imports jumped 48.6% to 888.4 billion yuan, while computer and parts imports rose 64% to 321.7 billion yuan. Bulk commodity imports — including energy, metals, and grain — totaled 53.2 million tons, up 10.6%.

Consumer goods imports also saw remarkable growth: edible vegetable oil imports more than doubled (+120%), beef imports rose 65.4%, dairy increased 10.9%, and aquatic products grew 6.1%.

Global Bay Area Competition Heats Up

The trade milestone comes as the GBA is projected to become the world’s largest bay area economy by GDP in 2026. According to an expert analysis by Wei Jianguo, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, the GBA’s annual economic output is expected to reach 2.32–2.35 trillion USD this year, surpassing the Tokyo Bay Area (approximately 2.0 trillion USD) and potentially overtaking the New York Bay Area (approximately 2.3 trillion USD).

Professor Andrew Brown of the London School of Economics and Political Science described the GBA as “the most ambitious regional integration laboratory in the world,” noting that “the complexity of its institutional framework and its potential for innovation are unprecedented in human history.”

Policy Support Accelerates Integration

In May 2026, the General Administration of Customs issued 20 specific measures to support GBA development, focusing on leveraging the unique “one country, two systems” framework, enhancing connectivity, fostering innovation, and improving logistics infrastructure. These measures are expected to further accelerate the region’s economic integration in the coming months.

What to Watch

With the GBA on track to become the world’s leading bay area economy, key questions remain: How will ongoing US-China trade tensions affect export growth in the second half of 2026? Can the rapid growth in semiconductor imports be sustained amid global chip supply dynamics? And what impact will the Customs’ 20 measures have on further accelerating cross-border integration? The answers will shape whether the GBA can maintain its remarkable trajectory.