Flanders Drought: Code Orange Declared as Crisis Deepens

Flanders has been placed under drought code orange — the second-highest alert level — as severe drought conditions turn the region dark red on water stress maps. The Flemish Drought Commission escalated the management level on July 16, declaring a “phase of effective and widespread water scarcity” (feitelijke en wijdverspreide waterschaarste), as reported by VRT NWS. With approximately 70% of groundwater measurement points showing low to very low levels for this time of year, experts are warning that the prolonged dry spell could lead to tensions between European countries sharing river water resources.

Context: A Region Built for Rain, Not Drought

Despite Belgium’s reputation as a rainy country, Flanders is structurally vulnerable to drought. According to hydrologist Patrick Willems of KU Leuven, writing in De Morgen, “Compared to our neighboring regions, Flanders is colored dark red on water stress maps. The extensive soil sealing resulting from our high population density means that rainwater is barely absorbed and water reserves are lost.”

Unlike the Netherlands, which benefits from Alpine meltwater flowing through the Rhine, Flanders has no large rivers providing meltwater. It depends heavily on upstream water from Wallonia and Northern France for the Scheldt, Leie, and IJzer rivers — but has no formal agreements guaranteeing minimum water passage from those regions.

Key Developments: Code Orange and Coordinated Measures

The Drought Commission, meeting for the first time this year, has activated coordinated measures across all Flemish provinces. Pumping bans are now in effect on non-navigable waterways, hitting farmers particularly hard. On navigable waterways, locks are being used more sparingly, with ships required to pass in groups — causing longer waiting times and reduced cargo capacity due to lower water levels.

The Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (VMM) confirmed that salt levels are rising in the IJzer river and canals in West Flanders due to low water volumes, while the number of locations with problematic toxic blue-green algae has risen sharply. Drinking water supply remains at code yellow (precautionary level), with Minister Jo Brouns stating that water companies are “better armed against prolonged drought than a few years ago.”

Across the border, the Netherlands has also escalated to a “factual water shortage” (niveau 2) as of July 16, according to Rijkswaterstaat. Rhine river levels near Arnhem are exceptionally low for this time of year, threatening shipping and water supply.

Analysis: The Risk of Cross-Border Water Conflicts

The drought is exposing critical gaps in international water-sharing agreements. Hydrologist Niko Wanders of Utrecht University warned VRT NWS that without better cooperation, tensions will rise. “The Netherlands is at the very back, a bit in the drainage ditch. Actually, only the last drops come our way,” he said. “A battle between the Netherlands and Flanders over water in the Meuse would not be desirable.”

The 1996 Meuse River Treaty between Belgium and the Netherlands governs water distribution during low discharge, but climate change is pushing the system to its limits. At a discharge of 30 cubic meters per second, only 10 cubic meters per second remains for Flanders under the distribution key — while normally about 15 is needed. Willems noted that “we are increasingly moving toward those critical thresholds.”

Wanders called on the European Commission to take a proactive role. “I don’t expect a fight with weapons, but a struggle where each country will want to keep as much water as possible for itself. That is certainly very disadvantageous for the Netherlands,” he said. Jeroen Haan, chair of the Dutch Unie van Waterschappen, has urged the European Commission to provide new cross-border agreements ensuring that all countries along the same river receive consent rights if another country makes plans affecting water supply.

What’s Next: A Test of European Solidarity

Flanders’ “Blue Deal” program, launched in 2020 with over 70 actions and 400 projects to combat drought, is now being put to the test. A successor plan for 2025-2029 focuses on reducing soil sealing, increasing water retention, and maximizing circular water use. But with no significant rainfall forecast and summer only half over, the immediate outlook remains concerning.

The key question is whether the European Commission will mandate cross-border risk mapping for shared river basins — similar to existing flood directives — and facilitate binding agreements before the next drought crisis. Without such frameworks, the dark red patches on water stress maps may soon represent not just environmental distress, but geopolitical friction.

For now, Flanders and its neighbors are managing the immediate crisis. But as climate change intensifies, today’s code orange may become tomorrow’s new normal — and the time to prepare for that reality is running short.