AIPAC Record Spending Tests Influence in Michigan Senate Primary
AIPAC and its affiliated groups have poured close to $30 million into Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, backing U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in what has become the largest test of the pro-Israel lobbying group’s political influence. The Aug. 4 primary pits Stevens, a four-term moderate congresswoman backed by the party establishment, against Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive physician who would become the first Muslim U.S. senator if elected, according to AP News.
The Spending Disparity
Outside organizations have poured close to $50 million into boosting Stevens’ candidacy. The super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, United Democracy Project, has spent more than $13 million on Stevens’ behalf and reserved another $7 million before the primary. One group, A Stronger Michigan, has spent roughly $12 million without disclosing its donors.
By contrast, El-Sayed has spent about $3.2 million from his own campaign account on advertising, with around $1 million in outside spending. Stevens herself spent only $12,000 of her own campaign funds on advertising through early July, before increasing it to close to $1 million.
A Battle Over Transparency
Most voters seeing ads blanketing Michigan’s airwaves are unaware they are funded by AIPAC. The ads never mention Israel, instead highlighting Stevens’ work on manufacturing and featuring former President Barack Obama. Former Rep. Andy Levin, whom Stevens defeated in a 2022 Democratic primary after redistricting, noted: “AIPAC never runs on AIPAC. They never even talk about Israel and Palestine. If you’re just a voter and you see a million ads, you don’t know who paid for it.”
Stevens has largely avoided discussing AIPAC directly. Asked twice about the organization during a campaign stop, she responded for more than 800 words without mentioning the group. “Anyone who supported me is supporting me because of my dedication to the people of Michigan, and the things that I have done for Michiganders,” Stevens told AP News.
The Candidates and Their Positions
Stevens, who flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018 and has won tough races since, emphasizes her electability. “It is not a hypothetical that I beat Republicans. I win tough races,” she said. She has been endorsed by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and EMILY’s List.
El-Sayed, the son of Egyptian immigrants, has made AIPAC’s spending a centerpiece of his campaign. He calls Israel’s military campaign in Gaza a “genocide” and argues that AIPAC’s influence distorts Democratic politics. “The reason that we’ve seen this war fought is because of the impact of AIPAC in our politics,” El-Sayed said during a debate. He has been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the United Auto Workers.
The Race Shifts
The contest narrowed to a two-person race on July 5, when state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign. A person with direct knowledge said the biggest factor was the recent influx of outside spending boosting Stevens, as AP News reported.
McMorrow’s exit reshaped the dynamics, forcing Democratic voters into a direct choice between a mainstream establishment candidate and a progressive challenger. It also prompted influential Democrats to announce support for Stevens, including Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel.
The National Stakes
The Michigan race has become a proxy war for the Democratic Party’s future direction. The outcome will signal whether the party’s progressive wing can overcome unprecedented outside spending, and whether the party’s divide over Israel policy will be a decisive factor in primaries.
Democrats must hold the Michigan seat — being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters — to have a realistic path to reclaiming the Senate majority in the 2026 midterms. The Republican nominee is former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by fewer than 20,000 votes. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since 1994.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s endorsement of El-Sayed, breaking with Senate Democratic Leader Schumer, highlights growing tensions within the party. “When I say the status quo, I mean not just the lawless Trump administration, but take on the Democratic establishment that has not fought hard enough for working people,” Van Hollen told AP News.
The Electability Question
The central tension in the race is whether Stevens’ proven ability to win in a battleground state outweighs the liability of her association with AIPAC and massive outside spending. El-Sayed’s supporters argue that his grassroots enthusiasm — his campaign says it has recruited more than 10,000 volunteers — can build a winning coalition.
“This election will come down to the many versus the money,” El-Sayed wrote.
What to Watch
With early voting already underway and the Aug. 4 primary approaching, key questions remain: Will AIPAC’s record spending prove effective, or will it backfire by galvanizing progressive opposition? Can El-Sayed’s grassroots operation overcome the massive spending disparity? And can the Democratic nominee hold the seat against Mike Rogers in the general election?
The race offers an early test of whether money or grassroots organizing will define the 2026 midterm elections.