Arizona Primary Tests GOP’s Future: Moderation vs. MAGA
Arizona voters head to the polls on Tuesday for the state’s primary elections, with the Republican gubernatorial race serving as a high-stakes referendum on whether the party must moderate its positions to win in a rapidly changing battleground state. The contest between Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert will determine who faces Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November — and could signal the direction of the Arizona GOP for years to come.
The Stakes
Arizona has transformed from a reliably Republican state into one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds. Gov. Katie Hobbs, one of only two Democratic governors up for reelection in states that Donald Trump won in 2024, is widely considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the country. But for Republicans to capitalize, they must first decide what kind of candidate gives them the best chance.
As of July, Arizona had approximately 4.3 million registered voters, including roughly 1.5 million Republicans, 1.2 million Democrats, and 1.5 million independents, according to AP News. About 755,000 ballots had already been cast before Election Day.
Two Visions for the GOP
The primary has become a clash of competing visions for reviving the once-dominant Arizona Republican Party. Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has built his career as a hard-line conservative and Trump loyalist. Schweikert, a self-described “free-market conservative,” has spent 16 years winning in a competitive swing district where appealing to independents is essential for survival.
“Biggs lives in a district where if he were a turtle running as a Republican, you’re going to win it,” Kathleen Dunbar, a former Tucson City Council member who plans to vote for Schweikert, told AP News. “Schweikert lives in a district that’s very much like the state of Arizona, where he has to win the independents.”
Biggs has been endorsed by Trump and backed by Turning Point Action, and has raised $1.9 million compared to Schweikert’s $872,000, according to Cronkite News. A May poll showed Biggs leading Schweikert 48% to 18%, with 34% of voters still undecided.
The Trump Factor
Trump’s endorsement is Biggs’ biggest asset, but it carries risks in Arizona. Since 2018, only former Gov. Doug Ducey has won a statewide general election as a Trump-endorsed Republican. In 2022, a Trump-backed slate led by Kari Lake lost winnable races after refusing to moderate their message.
Biggs rejects comparisons to Lake and has been softening some of his hard-line stances. After backing Trump’s push to block the 2020 election certification, Biggs now refuses to say whether President Joe Biden’s win was legitimate — a shift from his earlier full-throated claims of election fraud.
Schweikert, meanwhile, has avoided being photographed with Trump despite voting with the president 100% of the time in 2025 — actually outperforming Biggs’ 96% score, according to VoteHub analysis cited by Cronkite News. He has cultivated an image as a deficit-focused budget wonk, appealing to the more moderate, highly educated voters in his district.
The Independents’ Dilemma
Arizona’s large independent voting bloc — roughly a third of the electorate — could prove decisive in November. Schweikert has made electability his central argument, noting that he has won eight terms in a competitive district while Biggs has never faced a tough general election.
“If you come from a 16-point Republican district, you don’t actually have to pay attention to the third of Arizona voters that are independent. I do,” Schweikert told 12News, as reported by Cronkite News.
But some voters who might prefer Schweikert’s approach are skeptical he can win the primary. Jeff Clark, a retired engineer from Scottsdale who has been dismayed by his party’s embrace of Trump, told AP News he sat out the gubernatorial race entirely because he’s convinced Biggs has a lock on the nomination.
Down-Ballot Implications
The primary also features critical races for the U.S. House, particularly in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District — Schweikert’s open seat — which is a top battleground for control of Congress. On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker Jay Feely faces state Rep. Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. The Democratic primary features former state Rep. Amish Shah, the 2024 nominee who narrowly lost to Schweikert, and former news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, who has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
All 30 state Senate seats and all 60 state House seats are also on the ballot, with Republicans holding slim majorities in both chambers.
What to Watch
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time (10 p.m. ET) on Tuesday. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and its suburbs, contributed about 61% of the statewide vote in 2024 and will be the key battleground within the primary. With a large undecided bloc and high early voting turnout, the results will offer the first clear signal of whether Arizona Republicans are ready to embrace moderation — or double down on the MAGA movement that has defined the party under Trump.
The outcome will not only shape the 2026 midterm general election but could also influence the party’s direction in a state expected to be a critical presidential battleground in 2028.