Texas Flooding: Climate Scientists’ Warnings Become Reality
For the second year in a row, the Texas Hill Country has been devastated by catastrophic flooding, with the Guadalupe River rising more than 47 feet in a matter of hours and over 28 inches of rain falling in some areas. The July 2026 floods — which have claimed at least two lives, prompted more than 230 rescues, and triggered a disaster declaration for 59 counties — are exactly the kind of extreme weather event that climate scientists have been warning about for decades.
A Tragic Pattern
The flooding that struck the Hill Country in mid-July 2026 followed almost exactly one year after the July 4, 2025 floods that killed over 130 people, including 25 campers and two counselors at Camp Mystic on the Guadalupe River. Many of the same communities were hit again, and in some cases, the water rose even higher.
According to KUT News, Gov. Greg Abbott noted that expected rainfall during the 2026 storm exceeded 30 inches, compared to 20.29 inches during the deadly 2025 floods. Near Comfort, Texas, the Guadalupe River rose from 5.46 feet at 5 a.m. to 37.05 feet at 8:05 a.m. — a 31.6-foot rise in just over three hours.
“This is reminiscent of last year’s July 4th flood,” said Judge Shane Stolarczyk of the Kendall County Commissioner’s Court, as reported by KWTX. “We’ve taken on a significant amount more water than last year’s flood.”
Lives Lost and Lives Saved
At least two people died in the 2026 floods. John Mark Steward, 65, of Kerrville, was killed when his RV home was swept away by floodwaters. A 74-year-old man in Uvalde County died when his vehicle was swept off U.S. Highway 83.
But the death toll could have been far worse. Newly installed flood warning sirens — a direct response to the 2025 tragedy — were activated for the first time, alerting campers and residents along the Guadalupe River to flee the rising water. As Houston Public Media/NPR reported, the sirens blared early Thursday morning in Comfort, Texas, as the river reached perilous heights.
More than 2,350 state emergency responders and 1,400 vehicles were deployed, and over 230 rescues were conducted by Texas Game Wardens using boats and helicopters.
The Climate Connection
While scientists caution against attributing any single weather event directly to climate change, the statistical trends are unmistakable. Shel Winkley, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, told Texas Public Radio: “We’re not saying that our warming climate caused these floods this year, last year. But we understand how it’s making it more likely, more frequent.”
The mechanism is well understood: a warming atmosphere holds more moisture. For every 1 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature, the atmosphere can hold approximately 4% more water vapor. When weather conditions are right, that additional moisture translates directly into more intense rainfall.
“Right now the Gulf of Mexico, even by July standards, is above average,” Winkley said. “A warmer ocean can allow for more evaporation, more rain-making moisture.”
Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in New Braunfels, explained that an upper-atmosphere disturbance removed the typical summer “cap” that suppresses thunderstorms in Texas. “Because the air was so moist it produced very heavy rainfall,” Fogarty said. “The moisture levels were unusually high for this time of year, and when it rained it rained a lot.”
What the Science Predicted
In a landmark 2024 report, the Texas State Climatologist Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, in collaboration with Texas 2036, found that Texas has already seen up to a 15% increase in extreme rainstorms this century. The 2024 Climate Report predicted a 20% increase in the frequency of extreme storms by 2036 and a 10% to 15% increase in flooding in urban areas, potentially doubling flood risk compared to the last century.
These projections are now playing out in real time. The back-to-back nature of the 2025 and 2026 floods — hitting the same region in consecutive years with increasing intensity — is consistent with climate model predictions.
Infrastructure and Preparedness
The most significant change between the two disasters is the installation of flood warning sirens in Kerr County. Activated for the first time during the 2026 floods, these sirens represent a tangible improvement in disaster preparedness. State lawmakers also increased funding for warning systems and flood mitigation after the 2025 tragedy.
However, the floods still overwhelmed infrastructure. Roads and bridges were closed across the region. Mansfield Dam opened its floodgates for the first time since 2019, and Austin and Travis County banned activity on lakes and rivers due to dangerous conditions from the released water.
The Texas 2036 report warns that current infrastructure investments may be inadequate for the accelerating climate reality. Urban flood risk could double by 2036, and 87% of Texas voters have expressed concern that weather events may increase property insurance costs.
What’s Next
As recovery efforts continue, a new threat looms: Tropical Depression 2 was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico as of July 20, potentially threatening Texas with more flooding. The Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country has set up a relief fund for the hardest-hit counties, including Kerr, Uvalde, and Kendall.
For climate scientists and Texas residents alike, the message is clear. As Shel Winkley put it: the warming climate is making extreme floods “more likely, more frequent.” The question now is whether the state’s infrastructure and preparedness efforts can keep pace with the accelerating reality documented in the Texas 2036 report.