Tropical Storm Watches Issued Along Gulf Coast

Tropical Depression Two is drifting slowly northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue Tropical Storm Watches along the Gulf Coast from Florida’s Ochlockonee River westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. The system is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as early as Monday evening.

As of the NHC’s 4 p.m. CDT advisory on Monday, the depression was located approximately 105 miles south of Panama City, Florida, and 195 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a slow, erratic northwestward drift at just 3 mph. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River, where water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above ground.

A Low-Grade but Watchable Threat

Despite the watches spanning hundreds of miles of coastline, forecasters emphasize that this remains a relatively weak and disorganized system. The NHC reported that “gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this afternoon or tonight,” with a peak intensity of around 50 mph expected by early Wednesday.

Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, offered a measured assessment in the Tallahassee Democrat, describing the system as “predominantly a rainmaker, and not even an impressive one due to northerly shear keeping most of the storm’s convection over water.” He added that “overall, TD 2-slash-potential Bertha is a low-grade tropical threat to North Florida and the Central Gulf Coast, and overall won’t be much different from a normal summer mix of sun and rain away from the immediate coast.”

Primary Hazards: Rain, Surge, and Isolated Tornadoes

The primary threat from the system is rainfall. The NHC forecasts 2 to 4 inches of rain across the region, with isolated totals up to 8 inches possible through Friday. This rainfall could produce areas of flash flooding, particularly in urban areas, across western Florida, southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border, where storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible. Elsewhere, including Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida, and Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River, surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast. The NHC warns that surge-related flooding depends heavily on the timing of high tide.

According to WUSF Public Media, the system is caught between two high-pressure systems — one over the western Atlantic and another over the south-central United States — which is causing its unusually slow movement. This stagnation increases the risk of prolonged rainfall over any given area.

The NHC also notes that isolated tornadoes are possible over the Florida Big Bend region, and swells generated by the depression are already affecting portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Forecast Track and Uncertainty

There remains significant uncertainty in the storm’s exact path. The USA TODAY NETWORK reported that the depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. Additional watches or warnings may be required overnight or on Tuesday.

Truchelut noted a split between traditional model guidance, which takes a weaker system toward the western Florida Panhandle, and AI models that suggest a slightly stronger storm tracking toward eastern Louisiana. The NHC’s official forecast favors a track bringing the system near or just south of Pensacola by Wednesday morning, after which the storm is expected to weaken under increasingly hostile upper-level wind shear.

As Click2Houston/KPRC reported, the system is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Florida Panhandle by late Monday into Tuesday, and in the remainder of the watch area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

What to Watch For

Residents along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana should monitor local forecasts closely over the coming days. Key factors to watch include whether the depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Bertha as expected, whether watches are upgraded to warnings, and the storm’s ultimate landfall location — which will determine which areas experience the heaviest rain and strongest winds.

Emergency management officials across Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are monitoring the system and coordinating preparedness efforts. While this is not expected to be a major event, the NHC advises that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 24 to 48 hours, and residents should have a way to receive weather warnings and be prepared to adjust plans if conditions deteriorate.

The system is forecast to weaken after moving inland, with increasing upper-level wind shear expected to break apart the storm’s structure by late week.